Geert Wilders' far-right party has won the most seats in the Dutch election, according to exit polls, but the country's fragmented political system means months of negotiations will be needed before the next government is formed. Here's what to expect after Wilders' Freedom Party (PVV) won 35 seats in parliament, ahead of left-wing parties with 26 seats and centre-right parties with 23.
"Complex and exciting" negotiations
76 is the magic number. That's the number of seats in the 150-seat parliament each coalition needs to govern. As soon as the final results are out, the calculators will be out to see what combination of the many competing sides can get to that number. The new House of Representatives convenes to begin work on forming a cabinet, a "complex and exciting process," as Parliament's own website describes it. First, the political parties appoint a "scout" to start the initial negotiations. Parliament then appoints an "informant" to outline the possible contours of a coalition agreement. Prior to 2012, this person was appointed by the monarch. When it looks like a group of parties can work together, a "shaper" emerges, which is almost always the person who won the election. This person begins the delicate work of building a potential cabinet. If everything is agreed, the parties sign a coalition agreement and the new government presents its plans to parliament, followed by a vote of confidence.
How long will this take?
The parties are competing to get as much of their programs as possible into the coalition agreement, and this is done even before the race for ministerial posts. Prime Minister Mark Rutte's last government took a record 271 days to form. This time it may take even longer. "Amid high fragmentation, the formation of a government remains even more important than the exact election result," said Hermann Betten of Teneo Research Group. Most analysts do not expect a government to be formed before mid-2024.
Until the new government is officially sworn in, the cabinet and the outgoing prime minister run the country, in this case Mark Rutte. He called the snap election when his cabinet collapsed over immigration policy and announced he was leaving politics. Things are going pretty smoothly in the interim. This is a time-tested process, as never in Dutch history has a party won more than 50 percent of the vote.
How stable are coalitions?
The problem with the system is that with such thin parliamentary majorities, the coalition is always at the mercy of the smaller parties if they withdraw their support. Coalitions must include an already wide range of parties that are often relatively far from each other politically and that have attacked each other during the election campaign. Rutte's last coalition was particularly fragile and eventually fell apart over "irreconcilable differences" over immigration.
Known around the world for cycling to work, sometimes eating an apple along the way, Rütte was a strong voice in Europe. He sometimes irritated his southern counterparts with demands for fiscal discipline. Rumors abound that he wanted to become the new NATO Secretary General when Jens Stoltenberg stepped down. Rutte played down the idea, though admitted it would be an "interesting role". However, he believes that the post should be given to a woman. /BGNES
