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In the Baltic states, as in Ukraine, Donald Trump's victory in the November 5 election was marked by deep concern, followed by a focus on the positive.
Baltic politicians (past and present) have begun to note the potential benefits. Former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid, in a recent interview with ERR, seemed to embrace the increasingly popular position that the Biden administration has been militaristic during its four years in office, while expressing cautious optimism.
"The Biden administration has been very modest and careful," she told state media. "I would remain cautiously optimistic, with the caveat that you can never predict what Trump will do based on the past."
The general feeling among the Estonian population is that Harris' victory is preferable, said local journalist Villja Kiesler. But a sense of pragmatism still prevails.
"Estonian politicians have always been aware that Estonia must be able to communicate and cooperate with the Trump administration, and they have prepared for this. They're not happy, but they're not discouraged either,” Kiesler said.
Latvian Foreign Minister Brajba Braje followed a similar line, saying that "cooperation with the Trump administration will be close and strong." She noted the need for Latvia to continue investing in its own security and defense. On November 11, the Latvian Ministry of Defense began negotiations to purchase ASCOD infantry fighting vehicles as part of a major increase in defense spending that will see the country reach 3% of GDP by 2027, 50% more than the minimum of NATO.
"We in Latvia believe that Trump and his administration will continue to view the transatlantic relationship as a very valuable asset for the United States," said Olevs Nikkers, president of the Baltic Security Foundation. However, the initial news was "shocking" and the potential shift of US focus from the region was indeed felt as "alarming".
There is also continuity, with the increased focus on defense being part of a wider trend across the region towards increased arms production that preceded the US election. In June, Lithuania signed an investment agreement worth nearly $200 million with German arms company Rheinmetall for an ammunition plant and is in talks with Italian arms maker Leonardo to expand its operations in Lithuania.
The Rail Baltica project is also progressing, albeit slowly - the high-speed line is intended to connect Tallinn to the Netherlands via Vilnius and will be crucial to strengthening NATO.
Like the Baltic states, Northern and Eastern Europe also remain strong. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk organized meetings to discuss future security with Nordic and Baltic leaders in response to Trump's election victory, as well as French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO chief Mark Rutte and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
These countries now appear to be prioritizing strengthening ties and cooperation, especially in the face of Germany's perceived political weakness and timidity in its policy toward Russia.
The three Baltic states, along with Poland, spend the largest percentage of GDP on defense. This was also noted by members of Trump's new team.
The citizens and leaders of the Baltic States firmly believe that the best way to improve their own security and the security of Europe as a whole is simply to help Ukraine defeat Russia. The alternative would result in a much greater security threat and enormous additional costs.
"We must continue to work every day and for as long as necessary, with as much military, financial and humanitarian aid as is necessary for Ukraine," the EU's top diplomat and former Estonian prime minister Kaja Kalas told the European Parliament. | BGNES
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Alied Naylor, Center for European Policy Analysis
