Ukraine's invasion of Russia is now in its second week, and the shock is still palpable.
The Ukrainian military managed to achieve almost complete surprise when they crossed the border of Russia's Kursk region on August 6. While the ultimate goals of the operation are still the subject of much debate, Ukraine's success in catching the Russians completely off guard is a significant achievement in itself.
The Ukrainian military's ability to keep preparations for the current operation secret is all the more remarkable given the record of the first two and a half years of Russia's invasion. The war in Ukraine has been marked by the growing importance of drones and electromagnetic surveillance, which most analysts say creates a remarkably transparent battlefield. This makes it increasingly difficult for both armies to take advantage of the element of surprise.
Given the increased visibility on both sides of the front line, how did Ukraine pull off such a surprise? At this stage, there is very little detailed information about Ukraine's preparations, but initial reports indicate that unprecedented levels of operational silence and the innovative deployment of Ukrainian electronic warfare capabilities have played a significant role.
Ukraine's political leaders have been unusually tight-lipped about the entire offensive, giving no advance information and saying very little in the first week of the campaign. This is in stark contrast to the approach taken last year when the country's upcoming summer offensive was widely mentioned by officials and played up in the media. Ukraine's efforts to enforce operational silence appear to extend to the military. According to the New York Times, even senior Ukrainian commanders learned of the plan to invade Russia only at the last minute.
Ukraine's Kursk offensive appears to have come as a major surprise to Ukraine's Western partners. The Financial Times newspaper reported that neither the US nor Germany had been informed in advance of the planned Ukrainian operation. Given that the West is keen to avoid any action that might provoke Putin, it is certainly not hard to see why Kyiv might have chosen not to signal its intentions.
This approach seems to have worked. In recent days, the US, Germany and the EU have expressed their support for the Ukrainian operation. If Ukraine has indeed proceeded without getting a prior green light from the country's partners, planners in Kyiv may have been counting on the reluctance of Western leaders to thwart Ukrainian offensives at a time when Russia is destroying entire towns and villages, continuing slowly but surely to advances in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine's expanding electronic warfare capabilities are believed to have contributed to maintaining the element of surprise during the run-up to the current campaign. The Ukrainian military appears to have succeeded in suppressing Russian surveillance and communications systems in the initial zone of invasion through the targeted application of electronic warfare assets. This has left Russian forces unable to properly identify Ukraine's military build-up or anticipate an impending attack until it is too late.
Ukraine likely took advantage of the complacency and overconfidence of Russia itself. Despite suffering a series of defeats in Ukraine since 2022, the Kremlin continues to be almost pathologically dismissive of Ukrainian military capabilities and does not appear to have seriously considered the possibility of a large-scale Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Federation. The modest defensive installations established along the entire border area confirm that Moscow expected minor border incursions but did not plan to repel a major Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russia's sense of confidence undoubtedly owes much to Western restrictions imposed on Ukraine since the start of the war, which prohibit the use of Western weapons on Russian soil. These restrictions were partially eased in May 2024 after Russia's cross-border offensive in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, but the Kremlin did not believe that Kyiv would be bold enough to use this as a basis for offensive operations on Russian soil.
Ukraine's Kursk offensive appears to have come as a major surprise to Ukraine's Western partners. The Financial Times newspaper reported that neither the US nor Germany had been informed in advance of the planned Ukrainian operation. Given that the West is keen to avoid any action that might provoke Putin, it is certainly not hard to see why Kyiv might have chosen not to signal its intentions.
This approach seems to have worked. In recent days, the US, Germany and the EU have expressed their support for the Ukrainian operation. If Ukraine has indeed proceeded without getting a prior green light from the country's partners, planners in Kyiv may have been counting on the reluctance of Western leaders to thwart Ukrainian offensives at a time when Russia is destroying entire towns and villages, continuing slowly but surely to advances in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine's expanding electronic warfare capabilities are believed to have contributed to maintaining the element of surprise during the run-up to the current campaign. The Ukrainian military appears to have succeeded in suppressing Russian surveillance and communications systems in the initial zone of invasion through the targeted application of electronic warfare assets. This has left Russian forces unable to properly identify Ukraine's military build-up or anticipate an impending attack until it is too late.
Ukraine likely took advantage of the complacency and overconfidence of Russia itself. Despite suffering a series of defeats in Ukraine since 2022, the Kremlin continues to be almost pathologically dismissive of Ukrainian military capabilities and does not appear to have seriously considered the possibility of a large-scale Ukrainian incursion into the Russian Federation. The modest defensive installations established along the entire border area confirm that Moscow expected minor border incursions but did not plan to repel a major Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Russia's sense of confidence undoubtedly owes much to Western restrictions imposed on Ukraine since the start of the war, which prohibit the use of Western weapons on Russian soil. These restrictions were partially eased in May 2024 after Russia's cross-border offensive in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, but the Kremlin did not believe that Kyiv would be bold enough to use this as a basis for offensive operations on Russian soil.
Ukraine's Kursk offensive succeeded in showing that surprise is still possible on the modern battlefield. This is a significant achievement that highlights the skills and competence of the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainian invasion also reaffirmed that Putin's talk of Russian red lines and his frequent threats of nuclear escalation are a bluff intended to intimidate the West. Taken together, these factors should be enough to convince Kyiv's partners that now is the time to increase their military support and provide Ukraine with the tools to win. I BGNES
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Mykola Bielieskov, "Atlantic Council"
