France is voting today in parliamentary elections that will decide the country's political future and in which the far right could become the largest party in parliament for the first time.
Centrist President Emmanuel Macron called snap elections three years early after his forces were routed in June's parliamentary elections, a gamble many observers say has failed.
After coming out on top in the first round of the June 30 election, far-right three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was confident her National Assembly ("RN") could win an absolute majority in parliament and crown Prime Minister 28 - his protégé and party leader Bardella.
But in the past week more than 200 tactical voting pacts between centre-left candidates have been struck in seats to prevent the RN from winning in a return to the anti-far-right "Republican Front", first convened when Marin's father Le Pen Jean-Marie faced Jacques Chirac in the second round of the 2002 presidential election.
Thus, recent opinion polls predicted that the RN would fall short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, while still being the largest party in parliament.
Such an outcome would allow Macron to form a broad coalition against the RN and keep Gabriel Atal as caretaker prime minister. But it could also herald a long period of paralyzed political life in France, just as it prepares to host the Olympics from July 26.
"Today the danger is of a majority dominated by the extreme right, and that would be catastrophic," Atal said in the last pre-election interview on French television on July 5.
Many in France remain puzzled as to why Macron called an election he is not required to call and which could end up doubling the RN's presence in parliament and halving its contingent of centrist MPs.
But the president, known for his penchant for theatrics, appears intent on bringing what he calls "clarification" to French politics. he hoped that it would eventually leave three clear camps—far right, centrist, and hard left.
Final opinion polls published by two organizations ahead of the election predicted the RN would win between 170 and 210 seats, followed by the broad-left New Popular Front (NFP) coalition with 145-185 seats and Macron's centrists with 118-150 places.
With Macron's Together alliance forecast to come third, the success of the NFP is another key issue in the election, although its unity looks fragile as it includes both the traditional Socialists and the hard-left France Inflexible party (LFI ) of Jean-Luc Melenchon.
Whatever the outcome, the election risks undermining Macron's status as one of Europe's most significant political figures and a key Western bulwark for Ukraine in its fight against Russian invasion.
"France is on the brink of seismic political change," analysts at the European Council on Foreign Policy ("ECFR") said, warning that even if Macron were to control the government after the election, he would face "legislative roadblocks" that would weaken "the voice of France on the European and international scene".
Macron, who has dropped out of the public eye in recent days in an apparent bid not to further provoke the electorate, has vowed to serve out his term until 2027, when he is due to step down and Le Pen looks set to win the Elysee Palace.
Le Pen angrily denounced Macron's vision of "one party" rule spanning right to left, excluding the RN, lashing out at French elites who she says are conspiring against her.
After the success of the first round, however, the RN had a difficult final week of the campaign, with several scandals involving RN candidates - including one who was photographed wearing a Luftwaffe Nazi cap. All this put Le Pen and Bardela under pressure.
After voting began on Saturday in France's overseas territories, polling stations on the mainland opened at 06:00 GMT and will close at 18:00 GMT.
Forecasts, which usually give a very close idea of the final result, are released soon after, and political leaders react quickly during the election frenzy that keeps the nation on edge.
Despite the contested race, parties across the political spectrum urged French voters to cast their ballots in droves on July 7 to sway the outcome one way or the other precisely because opinion polls had predicted the far-right would be the largest party, but it would not received an absolute majority.
More than 50 candidates and campaigners have been physically assaulted during the four-week campaign, the shortest in modern French history.
Around 30,000 police officers, including 5,000 in Paris, will be deployed this weekend to prevent incidents and trouble. | BGNES
--------------------------------------------------
Stuart Williams and David Clarke, AFP
