Will democracy topple over into dictatorship in 2024?
This question may seem odd at a time when roughly half of the world's population—3.8 billion people—is voting, writes 'Politico".
The US, UK, EU, India, Mexico, Taiwan, and Indonesia—some of the world's most strategically vital nations—will conduct elections this year.
Even amid this electoral show, experts warn that democracy—first adopted by aristocrats in Athens in the sixth century B.C.—is in peril.
They say that Western democracy is threatened and that dictators like Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would utilise democracy to maintain their authority and suppress criticism.
President Donald Trump has vowed to use democratic institutions against his opponents if he wins in November. His probable re-election is already scaring Europe into thinking he will abandon Ukraine and NATO, allowing Putin to restore the Russian empire and influence in Central and Eastern Europe.
June's European Parliament elections in Europe are expected to show that far-right parties, particularly in France and Germany, are gaining momentum and becoming potential national governments that will be hostile to EU institutions in Brussels and European Muslims while favouring the Kremlin. The big concern is whether these parties would erode European democracy's mainstays, such an independent judiciary and a free press, after winning elections.
"It is absolutely legitimate to be deeply concerned about the state of democracy in the world," said Georgetown University public policy professor and EU law expert Daniel Kelemen. "Democracy is being questioned everywhere - not just in places that rank poorly in surveys of democratic values, but also in established democracies such as the US and the EU."
The Jan. 13 Taiwanese election will determine if Chinese President Xi Jinping would permit democracy on the island or invade and cause a South China Sea security crisis.
European political instability was on full display in the latter week of December. After demonstrators accused populist President Aleksandar Vucic of rigging elections in Belgrade, many were arrested. Vucic has been criticised for misusing his power over the media and government. Russia is blaming the West of inciting a Ukrainian-style Maidan against Vucic, who is friends with Putin.
Recent research on democracy's spread compared to alternative kinds of administration shows a disturbing trend. The V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg, Sweden, reports that democracy has been quickly losing momentum to despotism in recent decades.
"The level of democracy enjoyed by the average global citizen in 2022 has fallen to 1986 levels," V-Dem reported in 2023. "There are more closed autocracies, than liberal democracies, for the first time in more than two decades" .
V-Dem analysts believe that 72% of the world's population, or 5.7 billion people, would live under authoritarian control in 2022 due to a catastrophic Asia-Pacific decrease.
Freedom House, another democracy-tracker, released a disappointing assessment. "Global freedom," the Washington-based charity warned, "will decline for the 17th year in a row" in 2023, with free speech being the principal victim of autocracy.
Freedom House cited Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which sought to overthrow Kiev's democratic ambitions and cut connections with the EU.
Even despite this losing trend, democratic norms experts warn 2024 is dangerous for democracy. In 2024, the US presidential election poses the greatest risk.
Trump wants to return to the White House nearly three years after calling on Capitol crowds to overthrow the 2020 election, provoking an insurrection.
Trump's return to power is more possible than ever as polls show he might win the GOP presidential nomination and defeat incumbent Joe Biden. Legal difficulties could yet hamper his ambitions.
Trump is campaigning for votes, but his words at big rallies have raised concerns that if re-elected, he could convert the world's most powerful country into a "dictatorship".
The US's journey from democracy to dictatorship will likely be slow, weakening institutions and norms until democracy is only a veneer.
Example: judicial independence. It indicates a functioning democracy. Trump has regularly promised to staff critical institutions with loyalists and use the Justice Department to investigate his political adversaries if re-elected.
"I am extremely worried about the United States, more than any other country," he said. "The key issue is that a democracy requires at least two major parties committed to democratic values and practices.
The threat of despotism seems less likely in Europe, where hundreds of millions will vote in June's pan-European elections. Kelemen says that Europe's tolerance of autocrats like Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán is setting a dangerous precedent and encouraging others to follow.
Orbán's strategy of cronyism and media control makes many European countries susceptible. Parties are major patronage networks, especially surrounding elections, in Bulgaria, a weak democracy dominated by organised crime and Russia. Greece's Kyriakos Mitsotakis government is also under fire for undercutting regulators investigating state eavesdropping of lawmakers and media.
All of this affects the EU, which has struggled to police its member states' rule of law and democratic decline. This EU weakness is best demonstrated by Orbán, a Kremlin-linked politician who can block crucial decisions. He blocked a key financial lifeline for Ukraine in December.
Kelemen said it was a mistake to continue pandering to the Hungarian leader after the EU agreed to release 10 billion euros of bloc funding frozen on rule-of-law concerns in December.
"There is a huge price to pay for giving up your influence," referring to Brussels' capacity to force Orban to enact pro-democracy changes. "The suspension system won't deter anymore. Other regimes will notice."
An IPSOS survey released late last year found that trust in European democracy is falling in several major EU nations, including France and Italy.
Emergence of Elected Autocrat
Kelemen added that Putin and his far-right supporters want to undermine EU democracy.
Before EU elections in which hundreds of millions will vote, far-right parties are rising in France, the Netherlands, Germany, and other major EU countries. If these parties perform well in the June 6-9 vote, they may gain influence over EU policies, hindering Brussels from ignoring rule of law issues and defending democratic values.
"This could be the year we see the breakdown of the rules-based order," said HEC business school EU law expert Alberto Alemanno. "This is terra incognita" .
Regardless of the 2024 worldwide "Electoral Super Bowl" result, dictators and autocrats are unlikely to damage democracy the most.
The closer we go to total blackout, the more "elected autocrats" like Orbán will boast of "democracy in action" and seize media control and crack down on their opponents. This makes democracy protection harder, Kelemen said.
"The current breed of elected autocrats are trying to cloak themselves in the mantle of democracy," argues. "This confuses many people and it becomes a challenge to call these regimes what they really are: electoral autocracies or systems dominated by one party" ./BGNES
Nicholas Vinocur, Politico
