Superbugs will kill more than 39 million people by 2050, with the elderly particularly at risk, according to a new global analysis, the Guardian reports.
While drug-resistance-related deaths are declining among the youngest children, thanks to improvements in vaccination and hygiene, the study found the opposite trend among their grandparents.
By mid-century, 1.91 million people a year worldwide are projected to die directly due to antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In this disease, bacteria evolve so that the drugs normally used to fight them no longer work. AMR will play a role in 8.2 million deaths a year, up from 4.71 million.
The study, published in the Lancet, was conducted by the Global Research on Antimicrobial Resistance (GRAM) project and is the first global analysis of AMR trends over time.
Researchers used data from 204 countries and territories to produce estimates of deaths from 1990 to 2021, as well as projections covering the period to 2050.
They also found that millions of deaths worldwide could be prevented through better infection prevention and improved access to health care, as well as the creation of new antibiotics.
The study's author, Dr Mohsen Naghavi from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics (IHM), said:
"Antimicrobial drugs are one of the cornerstones of modern healthcare and increasing resistance to them is a serious cause for concern. These findings highlight that AMR has been a significant threat to global health for decades and that this threat is growing."
World leaders will meet in New York this month to discuss AMR during the UN General Assembly. They are expected to endorse a political declaration to step up action against AMR, which campaigners hope will include a target to reduce deaths from the disease by 10% by 2030.
The study, which involved more than
500 researchers from institutions around the world, found a "remarkable" decline in deaths from AMR among children under 5 - from 488,000 to 193,000 - between 1990 and 2022. They are expected to halve again by 2050.
However, while deaths due to infections in young children are fewer, they are increasingly likely to be caused by drug-resistant bacteria.
Deaths are also rising in all other age groups, with deaths from AMR among people over 70 having already increased by 80% in 3 decades and expected to rise by 146% by 2050, from 512 353 to 1.3 million.
Dr Tomislav Meštrović, associate professor at the University of Northern Croatia and associate professor at the IHI, said this trend reflects the rapid ageing of the population, with older people being more vulnerable to infections.
"Approximately three-quarters of infections caused by AMR are related - for example, to hospital-acquired infections - and the rapidly ageing population also necessitates more hospital care," he said.
Older people have more chronic diseases such as diabetes and heart disease.
Vaccination is often less effective in older people because the immune system deteriorates with age and older people are more likely to have reactions to antibiotics.
AMR-related deaths were lower in 2021 than in 2019, but the researchers said this was likely only a temporary reduction due to fewer infections because of Kovida-19 control measures.
The study predicted that the largest number of deaths in the future will occur in South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, as well as in other parts of South and East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. | BGNES
