The pre-election campaign for the parliamentary and European elections started on June 9, reported BGNES.
The parties will have one month, from May 10 to midnight on June 7, in which to convince voters that they should vote for them. 20 parties and 11 coalitions have expressed their desire to participate in the 2 in 1 elections.
GERB-Union of Democratic Forces (GERB-UDF) will lead the battle under the motto "Stable Bulgaria in a secure Europe". This time, the long-time mayor of the capital, Yordanka Fandakova, and the leader of the coalition in the local government, Georgi Georgiev, will fight for a place in the national parliament. For the European elections, the leader in Sofia is the chairman of the National Assembly in the 49th parliament, Rosen Zhelyazkov.
We Continue the Change -Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB) is betting on Nikola Minchev as the leader of the Eurolist. Until recently the Minister of Economy Bogdan Bogdanov is a candidate for deputy in two constituencies. Former Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov leads the coalition in Burgas and Shumen.
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) will fight for the national parliament for the first time with Delyan Peevski as the leader of the party, who leads the lists in Blagoevgrad and Kardzhali, and the leader of the Eurolist will be the other chairman of MRF, Jevdet Chakarov. Ilhan Kyuchyuk and Iskra Mihailova traditionally follow him, but until recently the MEP from the ranks of the Bu;garian Socialist Party (BSP), Elena Yoncheva, entered the race as fifth in the MRF list.
However, this is far from the only upheaval on the left.
Vanya Grigorova, who was nominated by the BSP city organization in Sofia for mayor and who reached a runoff, will now fight for a position in the national parliament together with Maya Manolova in the "Solidary Bulgaria" association.
Whether in the 50th NA the left voters will be represented not only by the BSP but also by one more party in the person of Grigorova-Manolova, remains to be seen.
The lists are clear, but what are the expectations for the election campaign?
According to the political scientist and sociologist Stoicho Stoichev, the campaign will not have a significant impact on the attitudes of people to vote and on the choice of party, bearing in mind the "permanent state of an election campaign" in which we find ourselves.
"Between 6 and 8 parties are normal to enter the parliament, we can also expect new formations - there is potential in Vanya Grigorova and Maya Manolova," the political scientist believes. According to him, the basic arrangement of political forces will not change, but the configuration will not be the same.
"Parties with close results such as MRF, Vazrazhdane and WCC-DB are forming on the one hand and GERB as the undisputed first force, but not with its advantage before 2021. This is forming as a trend. The distribution of positions will depend on the voter turnout and the distribution of small political groups," explained Associate Professor Stoicho Stoichev. He pointed out that with a more fragmented parliament, it is the small political forces that will be more important for a majority and a coalition.
"With more than a six-party parliament, we may have two or three parties with 12 MPs each," noted the sociologist.
Political scientist Boyan Balev said that the campaign will be full of attacks and accusations between the political forces, the voter turnout is not expected to be high, and there is room for new parties.
"It is expected that Vanya Grigorova will have a result above 4% and enter the National Assembly, with how many deputies we have yet to see," Boyan Balev believes. According to him, it is not expected that there will be a political party that will receive support of the type of GERB in 2009.
"Obviously, the elections will be the most successful for GERB and MRF, how many people's representatives they will have together is not so important, both parties will strive to preserve the status quo, and not to sudden movements", said Boyan Balev and specified that despite the heavy words dialogue with PP is not impossible. "Another topic is to what extent in the new configuration they will look for it and they will need a dialogue," said the political scientist.
The co-founder of "Trend", the sociologist Evelina Slavkova, also believes that the campaign will proceed on the basis of mutual accusations on the basis of "why the assembly did not happen".
Political parties must realize, however, that it is important for voters to hear specific policies and directions where the country will go in the coming months. However, the expectations are that these topics will be missing," said Evelina Slavkova. According to her, if the European elections had not been held together with the parliamentary ones, the voter turnout would have been lower.
"The voter turnout will be around 2.7 million people and there will be no surprise in terms of an increase or decrease in turnout, it has been low in recent years anyway," explained the sociologist.
Evelina Slavkova noted that no major political project is expected that would generally change the configuration of the parliament, which would be different from the 49th National Assembly, but there may be changes in positions. "The election campaign is of particular importance. The latest Trend research shows that there will be a battle for the second, third and fourth places, and this arrangement may put the next configuration in a different position," Slavkova believes.
Regarding the European elections and the nomination of Elena Yoncheva as fifth in the MRF list, the sociologist said that Yoncheva will most likely fight for preferences, while they are not particularly popular in the MRF. "Still, we will see in the course of the campaign whether she will try and whether she will have the opportunity to conduct a preferential campaign", noted Evelina Slavkova.
The sociologist commented that he does not see any particular energy at the moment around Vanya Grigorova's project. "Sociology will most accurately measure what opportunities there are, but keep in mind that the battle between the big political powers sucks the electorate from the small ones." On the other hand, low voter turnout will also have an impact. However, I certainly do not think that the split to the left is the most desired by the left electorate," added Evelina Slavkova, sociologist and co-founder of the Trend polling agency. /BGNES
BGNES reminds that in the last parliamentary elections held in the country on April 2, 2023, the voter turnout was 40.69%.
Then GERB-UDFwon 69 mandates, WCC-DB – 64, “Vazrazhdane” – 37, MRF– 36, BSP – 23, and “There is Such People” (ITN) – 11.
According to the last presented study of "Alpha Research" on electoral attitudes before the start of the campaign, the results show the support as follows: GERB-UDF - 25.4% WCC-DB - 17.5% MRF- 14.9% "Vazrazhdane" - 14, 6% BSP - 8.5% ITN - 5.2%. /BGNES