After just over two decades, almost 260 million people in the United States are estimated to be overweight.
The study, published in the Lancet medical journal, is one of the first to predict what the nation's obesity epidemic will look like by 2050.
Specifically, 43.1 million children and adolescents and 213 million adults will be overweight and/or obese. In 2021, 36.5 million children and adolescents and 172 million adults are above the norm.
The new forecast would mean that hundreds of millions of people in the U.S. will face complications related to a high body mass index, or BMI, including diabetes, cancer, heart problems, breathing problems and mental health challenges.
The health costs of obesity are significant, the study notes. In 2016, US health care costs due to this problem alone were between $261 billion and $481 billion.
Obesity and overweight – defined as a BMI over 30 or between 25 and 29.9 respectively – are among the fastest growing risk factors for early death or health impairment in the country.
To make the new predictions, researchers at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington created a model to determine population trends using historical data from 134 unique sources that include all major national survey data.
Researchers note that overweight and obesity have been a growing problem in the United States for years. Obesity rates in adults and older adolescents have doubled over the past three decades.
"Obesity is at a crisis point in the United States," said Dr. Marie Ng, co-author of the study and a professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, as quoted by CNN.
The high number of overweight young people is particularly worrying.
The study notes that some regions of the country are more likely to be affected, especially the south. The states with the most obese populations are Oklahoma, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Texas, West Virginia and Kentucky. Compared to 2021, the largest increases are expected in Colorado and New Mexico. | BGNES
