With more than 98 million eligible voters, some 70,000 candidates and more than 20,000 public offices, Mexico's June 2nd general election will be the largest in the country's history.
But it's not just the sheer scale of the vote that makes it so important in the eyes of observers across the border in the United States.
For the first time in the country's history, a female president is expected to be elected. The two front-runners are women - Claudia Scheinbaum of the Morena party, backed by the governing coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia, and Xochitl Gálvez, backed by a coalition of opposition parties.
The vote is also significant because it takes place in the same year as the US presidential election - something that only happens once every 12 years - and comes at a time of transition in relations between the two countries.
"The years when the US only wanted a secure and stable Mexico are over. Now they are also interested in a neighbor with good public policy," said Rafael Fernández de Castro Medina, director of the Center for US-Mexican Studies at the University of California, San Diego. He noted the growing number of Latinos in the US and the strengthening ties between the two countries.
Here are some of the biggest issues affecting U.S.-Mexico relations that will be affected by the vote on Sunday, June 2:
The economy, you fool!
Last year, Mexico became the United States' largest trading partner, overtaking China and Canada.
Experts say this is due in large part to geopolitical issues such as the pandemic, the legacy of Trump's trade war against China and the war in Ukraine, which have encouraged near-shoring - the moving of supply chains closer to home - which increases US imports from Mexico and investments in the country.
Key to facilitating this change was the creation of the USMCA trade agreement, which entered into force in 2020 between Mexico, the US and Canada.
"In this favorable context, the USMCA offered a legal regulatory framework that provided great security to the three North American countries, and Mexico seized the opportunity and strengthened its preferential tariffs to make this happen," explained Lila Abed, director of the Center's Mexico Institute. Wilson".
However, not everything has been smooth sailing. Mexico's compliance with the USMCA has been the subject of disputes between the administrations of current Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and those of US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.
"Mexico's next president will have to deal with a series of legal disputes that the United States, backed by Canada, has brought under the USMCA," Abed pointed out.
“They range from López Obrador's ban on the importation of transgenic corn for human consumption; the shift to nationalistic energy policy, which has affected US investments in electricity and hydrocarbons, and the low importance given to clean energy,” Abed said.
According to him, whoever wins the presidency on June 2 will have to deal with a lawsuit filed by the United States on these issues. It will also have to renegotiate the agreement when it comes up for renewal in 2026.
Many analysts believe that the U.S. is currently downplaying the controversy surrounding the USMCA in the hope that it will reduce differences in other areas, such as on Mexico's domestic issues -- such as alleged human rights abuses, the government's treatment of journalists and an increase in political assassinations - as well as on bilateral issues such as immigration and drug trafficking.
"Mexico has agreed to partially manage the immigration crisis in the United States by detaining immigrants on Mexican soil and arranging for their deportation in exchange for the United States not activating these lawsuits," said Raquel Lopez Portillo Maltos, executive secretary of the youth group of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi) think tank.
Jorge Alberto Schiavón Urriegas, vice president of Mexico's Center for Foreign Policy Studies and Analysis, emphasized that López Obrador has pursued a quid pro quo policy with both Trump and Biden, and this is likely to continue with Scheinbaum, if elected.
“Mexico is committed to solving the two main Mexican issues that affect the United States and define the American election: migration and fentanyl. In return, the United States has dramatically scaled back its criticism of Mexico's democratic and institutional weakness and scaled back its interventions, leaving more room for López Obrador's domestic politics," Schiavón Urriegas said.
Migration: Mexico, part of Trump's wall
While migration across the country's thousands-of-kilometer border is a common concern, the issue is far lower on the agenda of Mexican politicians than in the U.S., where it could prove a deciding factor in the November vote, said Karin Zisis, chief editor of the American Society/Council of the Americas website.
"Sheinbaum's and Galvez's speeches on migration are neither very strong nor very different from each other, nor do they touch too much on what to do with migrants in the country," she said.
“Proof of this is the fact that during the last presidential debate, when the subject of migration was raised, the main angle was the Mexican migrants who are currently living in the US; they were speaking to their potential voters north of the border and to the Latino community in general, which is large and influential thanks to remittances,” Zisis explained.
The problem for American politicians is that they need the support of their Mexican counterparts to succeed with their own immigration policies.
Zisis gave the example of how López Obrador has turned Mexico into "part of Trump's wall" by sending "thousands of members of the National Guard and the army to take care of migration control."
"Trump shouldn't have built the wall because Mexico is the wall."
The Mexican Institute's Abed said Mexico's next president will face a different challenge than previous leaders, as the country has transformed from a transit country through which immigrants pass through on their way to the U.S. to a final stop.
"The response of the López Obrador government was to transport the migrants waiting at the Mexico-US border to the southeast of the country and leave them there. Migration authorities are overburdened, the Mexican Commission for the Assistance of Refugees (Comar) is also overburdened, centers where migrants reside are very insecure, migrants - in particular unaccompanied minors and women, as well as young people - are at risk from organized crime and human traffickers, and their human rights can be violated," Abed explained.
She stressed that the next Mexican government will have to take responsibility for this large group of migrants "and decide whether to give them a temporary visa, whether to allow them to work, whether they will have access to medical services, etc."
Fentanyl and the drug trade
Security is another pillar of the bilateral relationship, especially with regard to the burgeoning cross-border drug trade, which is a problem for both countries.
As the United States grapples with a domestic health crisis stemming from the amount of fentanyl on its streets, Mexico faces rising cartel-related violence — including in the run-up to elections that have been marred by dozens of assassination attempts and other forms of political violence .
Mexico has made progress in cracking down on clandestine drug labs, but the next government must do more to stop the entry through seaports of chemical precursors, mostly from China, because they then fall into the hands of organized crime for production of these synthetic opioids.
“Mexico is committed to solving the two main Mexican issues that affect the United States and define the American election: migration and fentanyl. In return, the United States has dramatically scaled back its criticism of Mexico's democratic and institutional weakness and scaled back its interventions, leaving more room for López Obrador's domestic politics," Schiavón Urriegas said.
Migration: Mexico, part of Trump's wall
While migration across the country's thousands-of-kilometer border is a common concern, the issue is far lower on the agenda of Mexican politicians than in the U.S., where it could prove a deciding factor in the November vote, said Karin Zisis, chief editor of the American Society/Council of the Americas website.
"Sheinbaum's and Galvez's speeches on migration are neither very strong nor very different from each other, nor do they touch too much on what to do with migrants in the country," she said.
“Proof of this is the fact that during the last presidential debate, when the subject of migration was raised, the main angle was the Mexican migrants who are currently living in the US; they were speaking to their potential voters north of the border and to the Latino community in general, which is large and influential thanks to remittances,” Zisis explained.
The problem for American politicians is that they need the support of their Mexican counterparts to succeed with their own immigration policies.
Zisis gave the example of how López Obrador has turned Mexico into "part of Trump's wall" by sending "thousands of members of the National Guard and the army to take care of migration control."
"Trump shouldn't have built the wall because Mexico is the wall."
The Mexican Institute's Abed said Mexico's next president will face a different challenge than previous leaders, as the country has transformed from a transit country through which immigrants pass through on their way to the U.S. to a final stop.
"The response of the López Obrador government was to transport the migrants waiting at the Mexico-US border to the southeast of the country and leave them there. Migration authorities are overburdened, the Mexican Commission for the Assistance of Refugees (Comar) is also overburdened, centers where migrants reside are very insecure, migrants - in particular unaccompanied minors and women, as well as young people - are at risk from organized crime and human traffickers, and their human rights can be violated," Abed explained.
She stressed that the next Mexican government will have to take responsibility for this large group of migrants "and decide whether to give them a temporary visa, whether to allow them to work, whether they will have access to medical services, etc."
Fentanyl and the drug trade
Security is another pillar of the bilateral relationship, especially with regard to the burgeoning cross-border drug trade, which is a problem for both countries.
As the United States grapples with a domestic health crisis stemming from the amount of fentanyl on its streets, Mexico faces rising cartel-related violence — including in the run-up to elections that have been marred by dozens of assassination attempts and other forms of political violence .
Mexico has made progress in cracking down on clandestine drug labs, but the next government must do more to stop the entry through seaports of chemical precursors, mostly from China, because they then fall into the hands of organized crime for production of these synthetic opioids. /BGNES
