Jacques Attali was a French economist, financier and philosopher. In 1991, he became the founder and first head of the new European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. He is the author of novels, essays and monographs, among them the book "Jews, the World and Money", which has also been translated into Bulgarian, stands out.
Given only certain events, 2024 will be an extraordinary year for France, Europe and the world. And even more, given the events that are still uncertain.
In the next 12 months, more than 2/3 of the world's voters will be called to the polls in more or less free elections.
Elections for the European Parliament will be held in Europe, as well as in Portugal, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Austria, Finland, Lithuania, Croatia and Ukraine. Elsewhere in the world, voting will take place in the United States, Mexico, Russia, Iran, Indonesia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, South Korea, Taiwan, Bhutan, Cambodia, Azerbaijan, Senegal, Algeria, Comoros, Namibia, Guinea-Bissau, Mali , Burkina Faso, Rwanda, Togo, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, El Salvador, Panama, Dominican Republic, Mexico and Uruguay. Legislative elections will be held in the Solomon Islands, Palau and Tuvalu (whose 11,000 residents have already negotiated climate refuge in Australia).
In many of these countries, election results are more or less predictable:
In the UK, a Labor victory seems a foregone conclusion; in India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to be re-elected; in Pakistan, as in Bangladesh, the upcoming elections are unlikely to change the balance of power; in Indonesia Prado Subianto, a former rival and candidate supported by the outgoing president Joko Widodo (who cannot run for re-election and whose popularity remains very high), is likely to win the next presidential election, especially since he chose the outgoing president's son president for his candidate; in Mexico, it now looks likely that Mexico City Mayor Claudia Scheinbaum, backed by the outgoing Socialist president, will win against another woman, Xochitl Galvez, who has rallied around her the entire opposition from the right and the center.
Among the uncertain elections, the three most important will be the presidential elections in the USA and Taiwan, as well as the European elections for the renewal of the European Parliament. In the United States, whoever wins, the result will usher in a period of great chaos: lasting chaos if Donald Trump is elected and carries out his insane agenda of establishing a true dictatorship; temporary chaos if, after his defeat, his supporters unleash a civil war better prepared than the one in 2020. In any case, in 2024 the United States will be more introverted than ever, at a time when Europe especially needs their support. A Europe that in June 2024 could end up with a European Parliament that is much less homogeneous than the current one and therefore much weaker; with a far-right party that could, together with the populists, become the third party in this parliament. In Taiwan, everything will be decided between three candidates: the favorite William Lai, rather hostile to any rapprochement with Beijing, will have to defeat Hou Yu-yi, who wants to protect peace at all costs, and the unpredictable Ko Wen-je, which has the support of young people.
Other (almost) certain events with established regularity are the Olympic Games in Paris, as well as world or continental championships in a wide range of sports.
Among other certainties is the continuation of climate disturbances, which will become more visible and cause more disasters on all continents. And hunger, which will undoubtedly continue to affect more than 500 million inhabitants of the planet. And the collapse of the education system in many countries, which will undoubtedly become more visible.
At the same time, conflicts with an unclear outcome will weigh heavily on the fate of hundreds of millions of people. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza may end or spread, as may other conflicts in Somalia, Yemen, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Iran and North Korea may declare themselves nuclear powers, which will upset the geopolitical balance in their regions. Meanwhile, the Chinese People's Army will be on high alert, even closer to Taiwan, that the election will have brought to power an enemy of rapprochement.
Whatever happens, and even if most of these elections appear to result in a near-total status quo, we have entered a zone of great turbulence in which imbalances are accelerating with no rebalancing mechanisms in place.
Some will continue to hope for a miracle from technological progress, which is also accelerating. Others, more and more, will realize that the fate of humanity will depend on the actions of each one of us.
We knew this at the beginning of the 20th century and did nothing about it. 2024 is more than ever the year of truth. /BGNES
