Heat-related deaths in Europe could triple by the end of the century, a study has found. The number will grow disproportionately in southern European countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain, the Guardian reported.
The cold kills more people than the heat in Europe. Some argue that climate change will benefit society by reducing these deaths.
A study published in the Lancet Public Health found that the number of deaths will respond slowly to warming weather and may even increase due to ageing people and their greater vulnerability to dangerous temperatures.
The researchers concluded that if global warming reaches a catastrophic 3 °C or 4 °C, the increase in heat deaths will greatly exceed the decrease in cold deaths.
The findings show that climate change poses an "unprecedented challenge" to public health systems, especially during heat waves.
"Many more heat-related deaths are expected as the climate warms and the population ages, while cold deaths are declining only slightly," said David García-León of the EC's Joint Research Center, a co-author of the study.
Deaths from warm weather could result in 129,000 deaths per year if temperatures rise to 3 °C above pre-industrial levels. Today, the number of heat-related deaths in Europe is 44,000. But the annual number of deaths from cold and heat in Europe could rise from 407,000 today to 450,000 in 2100, even if world leaders achieve their global warming target of 1.5 °C, the study said.
The research is linked to a series of heat waves that have wreaked havoc across the continent. Its results challenge the claims of climate change deniers that global warming is good for society because fewer people will die from the cold.
The study found that even in Europe, the coldest inhabited continent, the loss of life from the intense heat would offset those saved by the milder cold. Countries in Asia, Africa, Oceania, and North and South America are baking in even deadlier temperatures.
"This study is a stark reminder of the number of lives we are putting at risk if we fail to respond quickly enough to climate change," said Madeleine Thomson, head of climate impacts and adaptation at health research charity Wellcome.
She added that the projected tripling of direct heat deaths in Europe "isn't even the full picture", pointing to research linking extreme heat to miscarriages and poor mental health.
"There are also indirect impacts. We have already seen how extreme heat can cause crop failures, devastating wildfires, damage critical infrastructure and affect the economy – all of which will have ripple effects on our lives,” Thomson explained.
The researchers modelled data from 854 cities to estimate deaths from hot and cold temperatures across the continent. They found that the heat will kill more people in all parts of Europe, but the heaviest burden will fall on southern European countries such as Italy, Greece and Spain, as well as parts of France.
They predicted that the number of deaths from uncomfortable temperatures would increase by 13.5% if the planet warmed by 3°C – a level of climate collapse slightly higher than what policies are expected to cause – leading to up to 55,000 additional deaths. Most of the dead will be over 85 years of age.
According to Gary Konstantinoudis, an epidemiologist at the MRC's Center for Environment and Health, who was not involved in the research, the study was of high quality and provided valuable insights. However, he cautioned that predicting temperature-related deaths is complex and will always contain uncertainty.
The analysis builds on a previous study that assumed the effect of temperature on mortality was constant between 2000 and 2019, but other studies reported a decline due to factors such as improved healthcare and changes in infrastructure. "Not accounting for these factors is expected to lead to an overestimation of the future impact of heat on mortality," he said.
The study also extrapolated data on heat deaths from urban areas to rural areas, which experience less heat stress.
Elisa Gallo, an environmental epidemiologist at ISGlobal who has studied heat deaths in Europe and who was not involved in the study, said it was "increasingly important" to adapt to the increasing heat.
The researchers are encouraging governments to consider policies to reduce deaths, such as investing in hospitals, creating action plans and isolating buildings. They emphasized that the projected increase in the number of deaths is due to changes in the population structure and climate in Europe.
"If we are to avoid reaching the worst-case scenario, it is essential to address the root of the problem by reducing greenhouse gas emissions," Gallo noted.
The researchers concluded that adaptation efforts should focus on regions with high unemployment, poverty, structural economic changes, emigration and ageing populations. According to them, such areas are less able to adapt to climate damage and are also more affected by the increase in heat deaths. | BGNES
