But a united bloc of pro-Western opposition parties also declared victory, claiming they had gained a collective majority, setting the stage for a confrontation over the future of the Caucasus state.
On October 26, voters in the country of nearly 4 million headed to the polls in a watershed election. They will decide whether the increasingly authoritarian GD party, which has been in power since 2012 and has steered the country on a conservative course that has moved it away from the West and closer to Russia, will secure another four-year term, the Guardian reported.
Bidzina Ivanishvili, the shadow billionaire founder of GD, announced his victory shortly after polls closed in an election that has been called the most significant since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
"It is rare in the world for the same party to achieve such success in such a difficult situation - it is a good indicator of the talent of the Georgian people," said Ivanishvili, considered the country's most influential figure.
If the central election forecast holds, the GD will secure a parliamentary majority, dashing opposition hopes for a pro-Western four-bloc coalition and effectively halting the country's EU integration drive.
Rival polls on the outcome of the election offered widely differing predictions: 3 of them pointed to the opposition gaining a majority, while others predicted a comfortable victory for the ruling GD party.
Exit polls by the pro-opposition channels Formula and Mtawari Archi showed large gains for the pro-Western opposition parties, which they said would be able to form a majority in the 150-seat parliament. According to an exit poll by the pro-Georgian Dream TV channel Imedi, the ruling party will get a majority of 56%.
"Exit polls show an impressive 10% difference in favour of the opposition. We believe that the Georgian public has voted clearly for a future in the heart of Europe and no amount of posturing will change that," said Tinatin Bokuchava, leader of the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM), calling on the GD party to withdraw.
Georgia has maintained strong pro-Western aspirations over the past three decades, with polls showing up to 80% of the country's population supporting EU accession. In recent years, however, the Georgian Dream-led government has increasingly distanced itself from the West in favour of Russia, showing reluctance to condemn Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine.
Many expected the GD to become the largest party, but it may not get a majority and struggle to form a government as all other blocs refuse to cooperate with it.
She was facing an unprecedented alliance of 4 pro-Western opposition forces who promised to form a coalition government to oust her from power and put Georgia back on the path to EU accession.
The largest opposition force is the centre-right UNM party, founded by former President Mikheil Saakashvili, who is in jail on charges of abuse of power that his allies say are politically motivated.
Opposition polls on the outcome of the election predicted the UNM party would take second place, followed by the Coalition for Change, an alliance that brings together several parties led by former UNM leaders.
The results will be closely watched in Moscow and Brussels, with the EU saying the vote will determine Tbilisi's prospects of joining the bloc.
"Georgian Dream campaigned on accusations that the pro-Western opposition was trying to drag Georgia into a Ukraine-style conflict. In 2008, Georgia fought a war with Russia that lasted five days but left deep scars, and the invasion of Ukraine has led some in the country to fear the possible consequences of provoking Russia by moving closer to the West.
Critics also accuse the party of plans to steer the country in an authoritarian direction after Ivanishvili promised to ban all leading opposition parties and remove opposition lawmakers if his party is re-elected.
"The government is openly promising to turn Georgia into a one-party state - a move that is unprecedented in Georgia's modern history," says Tina Khidasheli, chairwoman of the NGO Civic Idea and a former defence minister.
Outside polling stations in central Tbilisi, some voters echoed that view.
Support for pro-Western opposition groups usually comes from urban and younger voters who envision their political future with the EU
But other Georgians said they voted for the ruling party, believing it was the only force that could keep the country out of war with Russia.
"Right now we need stability and friendly relations with Moscow," said Elene Kiknadze, a 74-year-old woman.
Voting for the GD, she said, would ensure that Georgia would preserve its "traditions" given its conservative values, including opposition to LGBT+ people's rights.
"Let Europe have its freedoms. We don't need gay pride parades in this country," she added.
Georgia's ruling government, which is linked to the deeply conservative and influential Orthodox Church, is trying to boost anti-liberal sentiment by campaigning on "family values" and criticising what it portrays as Western excesses.
Over the summer, parliament passed a law imposing strict limits on LGBT+ rights, a move that critics say mirrors laws passed in neighbouring Russia, where authorities have implemented a number of repressive measures against sexual minorities.
The notoriously divided Georgian opposition has tried to unite by forming four pro-EU blocs that have backed the Georgian Charter, an initiative proposed by the country's pro-Western president Salome Zurabishvili urging them to prevent the GD from forming a coalition and staying in power.
Zourabishvili, whose role is largely ceremonial, wrote on election day in X: "European Georgian wins with 52%".
Last year, the EU granted Georgia candidate status, but postponed its bid in response to a controversial "foreign agents" bill passed in May, under which media and NGOs receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad must register as "agents of foreign influence".
The bill, which sparked weeks of mass protests in the spring, has been dubbed a "Russian law" by critics who compare it to legislation introduced by the Kremlin a decade ago to silence political dissent in the media and elsewhere.
Independent NGOs warned that the GD would try to undermine the parliamentary elections by relying on its "administrative resources" - a general term that includes pressuring civil servants to vote and offering cash benefits to voters, mostly from rural areas.
On the morning of 26 October, several videos circulated on the internet showing ballot stuffing and voter intimidation taking place at various polling stations in Georgia.
"Bidzina Ivanishvili's thugs are desperate to hold on to power and will resort to anything to undermine the electoral process," said Bokuchava, the leader of the Movement for the Unification of Peoples (MUD), as voting got underway.
The opposition warned that the ruling party could try to manipulate the results, which could spark mass protests, possibly followed by a violent police crackdown.
"I certainly don't expect Georgians to tolerate electoral fraud. People will not stand idly by when their future is taken away from them," Bokuchava said. | BGNES
