Last week, Ukraine did what many thought was impossible by invading Russia. This was truly something that had not happened since World War II. The implications are numerous, but first, some context.
Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022 to block what Moscow saw as a potential route of attack by NATO. Moscow was convinced that Ukraine was weak and divided and concluded that a swift invasion would destroy Ukrainian forces and allow a Russian occupation. Time was of the essence.
Every minute the war dragged on was a minute the US or NATO could intervene. Putin's government did not expect and therefore did not plan for a long and costly war and has been paying for its mistake ever since. However, Russia felt it still had one important advantage: it dominated the battlefield.
If Moscow could not control the strategic aspects of the war, it could at least gain the upper hand in the tactical aspects. In this way, it managed to keep the Ukrainian forces on the defensive - until last week, when Ukraine invaded the Kursk region.
How Ukraine was able to invade Russia is still not entirely clear. Sometimes the military gets into a pattern where certain things are seen as impossible. Sometimes the military lacks intelligence or ignores it. Russia started the war based on bad intelligence, so such a massive intelligence lapse that failed to predict the invasion would fit the pattern.
It is no secret that Russia has recently been reaching out to North Korea and Iran for additional armaments, so it is possible that Ukraine saw this as a sign of weakness. After all, it is not wise to depend on fragile foreign military supply lines and admit that your weapons are running out.
In some ways, the reason for the invasion is less important than the fact that the invasion happened at all. But what also matters are the circumstances in which the world found out about it. The invasion probably took place on August 6, but remarkably, Ukraine managed to maintain the operational discipline of the major military and PR success for days until President Volodymyr Zelensky broke his silence on August 10. The Ukrainian army itself remained silent even when it was on the offensive. This is no small feat for a force that is considered brave but not always effective. This will undoubtedly boost the morale of soldiers and civilians alike.
Meanwhile, it is unclear why Moscow would announce an attack on its territory after two years of pursuing a policy of deliberately creating an atmosphere of confusion and chaos. The most likely explanation is that the government concluded that the public was war-weary and increasingly distrustful of government-issued information.
The Kremlin's conclusion may be that another escalation of the war can be better met by honest reporting. Managing public perception is essential in all conflicts, but in this one, it is especially important. This applies in full force to Russia, whose citizens seem to be unaware of the necessity of the war and its conduct. | BGNES
-----
George Friedman, "Geopolitical Futures."
