As last year drew to close it was hard to imagine a more hectic year for the world. Europe's biggest war since WWI seemed quite enough to be a source of tension internationally. 2023 though had other intentions and to the war in Ukraine was added the one in Gaza. The 12 months were filled with tension in international relations, with every agreement and action having its cause in the geopolitical context of the moment. Tensions will continue into the new year as the wars in Gaza and Ukraine continue, bringing with them all opportunities for further escalation. This roundup will highlight some of the more important events of the past 12 months.
Finland's entry into NATO marked a turning point in the history of the northern country, which abandoned more than half a century of neutrality. The inclusion of Finland in the alliance is not only important for the country, but also for the union as a whole. One of the most capable armies in the world will be available in the event of a conflict, and its dedication to developing defense technology makes it more of a plus than a minus for the alliance.
In addition to the diplomatic aspect of this decision, there is also a military one. The huge border with NATO will force the Russian state to spend even more money on defense, which will further burden its economy. Even completely abstracting from the losses in Ukraine, Finland's entry into NATO is a huge loss for Russia. This is further characterized by turning the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake that completely isolates the Russian fleet and Kaliningrad.
The war between Hamas and Israel
Hamas' attack on Israel on October 7 unleashed the biggest escalation in the region in decades. The war in the region brings with it mostly civilian victims, this comes from the nature of unconventional war as well. Hamas uses terror tactics, targeting civilians while at the same time using densely populated terrain for cover. This makes the distinction between civilian and combatant extremely hazy. All this brings with it the humanitarian catastrophe and the danger of an escalation of the conflict in the region. The other groups supported by Iran are the main candidates for further escalation (Houthis, Hezbollah, Syria). Bringing in additional players is already showing its impact on the world. The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have stood firm against Israel. They launched a campaign of missile strikes on Israel and shipping in the Red Sea. While they are not a direct threat to Jerusalem, they are a serious problem for merchant ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Several ships have already fallen victim to the pirate raids of the Houthis: Swan Atlantic, "Rouen", Maersk Gibraltar, etc. Bulgarian sailors also fell victim to these attacks. The transformation of the Red Sea into a war zone has forced companies to suspend the transit of goods, including BP, Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and others. This brings extreme economic risks, as the extended journey to Europe via Africa is much more expensive. Oil prices increased as a result.
Another international aspect of the war in Gaza is the influence of diasporas in different countries. Pro-Palestinian protests were organized in almost all Western countries, turning violent. This is most evident in the USA and UK. In response, pro-Israel rallies were also organized. A number of US universities fell victim to this division. Violent clashes involving students, faculty and administrators erupted at Harvard, Stanford and New York universities, escalating into heated debates on social media and accusations of anti-Semitism, Islamophobia and threats to free speech. In some places, bans were reached. Columbia University bans Gaza war protests.
Ukraine's counteroffensive
The year in Ukraine began with unprecedented optimism. The Western allies have finally unlocked the help of heavy Western machinery, which has become the backbone of the expected Ukrainian counter-offensive. Ukrainian defenders managed to make significant gains by the end of 2022, with Kharkiv Oblast liberated after a lightning attack, as well as the city of Kherson after grueling fighting in the autumn. After these victories, 2023 was filled with promising plans and expectations.
The media hysteria surrounding the announced Ukrainian offensive largely obscured what was happening. The Ukrainians attacked, were met by fortified defensive lines, and logically the advance slowed down. This led to boredom on the part of commentators and mainstream media, in contrast to the slow and bloody development of the fighting expected by experts, leading to the offensive being described as a failure and the mood changing from optimism to despair.
This is not entirely true, officials among the Western allies have insisted on continued support, stressing that one offensive will not be enough and that support will continue as long as it needs to. While the front line did not shift by hundreds of kilometers like last year, the Ukrainians had victories and the initiative at the front. Victories included successful strikes against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, notably the decommissioning of a Russian submarine, the Kilo, and other Russian warships.
The 2023 Ukraine War set the trend for the ever-changing narrative in a wonderful way. In 2022 Russia attacked and everyone expected a quick victory, it didn't happen and the Russians suffered huge losses and retreated from Kiev. This changed the narrative from "Russia will win immediately" to "Russians face collapse". This was followed by a methodical Russian advance into the Donbass, with Russian forces capturing Lisychansk and Severodontsk. This changed the optimism to "Russia still, even with losses, will gradually advance", then it came to the liberation of Kherson and Kharkiv region. This constant exchange of views on the war is very evident this year, from extremely high optimism to defeatist rhetoric. Both being equally far from the truth, the war continues and its finale is yet to be drawn.
Xi Jinping-Biden meeting
The meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping in California was historic. The importance of the event came from the complex geopolitical situation in the world and the tension between the two countries, not so much from the decisions and agreements made after the meeting. The tone between the world's two most powerful economies has turned extremely hostile with Trump's presidency. This has only increased with China's bellicose rhetoric, especially against Taiwan.
The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have posed a new challenge between the two countries. As the US and China are in opposite camps, the US supports Ukraine, China-Russia. Beijing's support has been more subtle than that of the US, but the strengthening relationship with Moscow leaves little to the imagination.
In this context, the meeting seems really important, even without the signing of important documents. Opening more channels of communication moves away from open confrontation. The competition between the two countries will not decrease, but the slowdown of the Chinese economy and the impending demographic crisis have led to moderation in Chinese diplomacy. Communication between the US and Chinese militaries, climate negotiations, and the fight against drugs (particularly fentanyl) are the victories of this meeting. Nothing spectacular, but also important given the context.
2023 was marked by 3 coups in Africa, 2 successful ones in Gabon and Niger and a civil war in Sudan. This has been a continuing trend for the past three years, while the number of coups on the African continent has increased significantly, with the military carrying out coups in Gabon, Niger, Burkina Faso, Sudan, Guinea, Chad and Mali. After the successful coup in Niger, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) said it would not allow another coup, and imposed severe sanctions and threats of military action to restore that country's democratically elected government.
Despite the united response of most West African countries, the junta in Niger remains in power, showing how difficult it is to reverse a coup once it has taken place. The apparent decline of democracy in Africa comes within the wider context of global tensions. Examples of this are Niger and Sudan. Niger immediately established ties with the other two juntas in the region – Mali and Burkina Faso. Active cooperation began with groups such as "Wagner", which have considerable influence among the junta, looking for any options for military assistance. This effectively puts them in Russia's zone of influence, because the "private" in Russian mercenary groups is only for aesthetics. They operate with the blessing of the Russian intelligence and army, this became even more evident after Prigozhin's failed "rebellion". After that, Wagner was even more integrated with the official structures.
The civil war in Sudan represents the world's confrontation on another level. After the coup attempt by Mohamed Daglo's Rapid Reaction Force (RSF), the country is in civil war. Wagner was quick to support the new coup. In the unfolding civil war, not only Russia intervened, Ukrainian intelligence also got involved.
In September 2023, CNN reported that Ukrainian special services were possibly behind the strikes on Wagner forces in Sudan. The strikes are said to have come two days after the Wagnerites delivered a large shipment of weapons to the African country.
According to the sources, the operation was carried out by "non-Sudanese military" and that "Ukrainian special services are probably responsible".
Western media saw a Ukrainian trace in the footage, which showed distinctive features of Ukrainian-style drone attacks. The drones, widely used by the Ukrainians during the war against Russia, were involved in at least eight strikes, with Ukrainian text visible on the drone's controller. /BGNES
Georgi Vasilev, editor in the International Department of BGNES Agency.
