The majority of the world expects a troubled, not a peaceful, year 2024. 8 out of 10 citizens on all continents fear a potential nuclear war, rating the risk of one as moderate or high. A majority also expects economic difficulties for next year, although the peak of pessimism about the economy has passed with Covid-19.
These are some of the main conclusions of the annual international survey of the World Association "Gallup International" "At the end of the year".
One in four people around the world expect a more peaceful 2024, but two out of five expect the opposite – a more conflictual year. Almost everyone else expects the year to be the same as last year. So, worries definitely prevail. A few years ago, for example, Gallup International's Global Peace Optimism Index showed nearly equal shares of optimists and pessimists. Now, apparently, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza have unleashed more fears around the world.
In Ukraine itself, 26% expect a more peaceful year, and 33% - a year with more difficulties. 36% expect 2024 to be the same as 2023. The rest cannot judge. In Russia, the attitudes are: 12% expect more peace, 35% a more problematic year, and 29% expect the year to be the same.
The West generally seems concerned. At the opposite pole, countries from the global south and east stand out, with examples such as Afghanistan and Indonesia, where shares of positive expectations regarding war and peace reach 68%.
Unfortunately, there has been no significant drop in nuclear threat fears this year. Two-fifths of those asked now see a high risk of using nuclear weapons. Almost the same share see a moderate risk, and only 14% see no risk. The rest cannot answer.
As a year ago, a majority in the US rated the risk as moderate. In Russia, the attitudes are close to those registered a year ago – this time the declared expectations for moderate risk versus those for high risk are 40% versus 20%.
Two out of five interviewees around the world expect a better new year, and one in four expects a worse one. Nearly 30% expect the same year as the previous year. The data look more optimistic than those recorded 12 months ago, albeit only marginally.
Countries such as Germany, USA, Russia show some easing in their expectations compared to the end of 2022, although they still remain rather worried. Important actors like Iran, for example, are not pessimistic. India is visibly positive, and the countries of the Global South traditionally stand out in their optimism. Europe - on the contrary - remains not entirely positive, but with some happy exceptions in the face of the Albanian communities, for example. In Saudi Arabia, an impressive 84% state positive expectations for the coming year.
Expectations for the economy are also showing, albeit weak, signs of relief. 39% expect a year of more economic difficulties – 9 points less than a year ago. Expectations for prosperity, or at least for maintaining the current situation, on the other hand are rising, but negativity still prevails.
The European Union remains a rather pessimistic place on the world map.
The data from the annual global survey of the world association "Gallup International" show that Bulgarians clearly rank with the West in their sentiments - less optimism and hope for prosperity and more worries about peace and the future.
At the end of 2023, the majority of those asked in our country (38%) expect a worse 2024, about a fifth (18%) are optimistic about the next 12 months, and 31% expect the new year to be the same as the previous one. The rest cannot judge. Within a year, both optimists and pessimists have decreased in our country - at the expense of the share of those who do not expect any particular changes.
A tenth of Bulgarians have expectations for economic prosperity. Half of those asked (49%) expect difficulties, and about a third (29%) do not expect changes in the economic situation. The rest cannot judge. Thus, the traditional pessimism about the economy in the country is preserved, but the share of pessimists (albeit high) decreased by 11 points within a year. Optimists remain in the same shares for a year.
The proximity of conflicts to our country clearly does not allow optimism for world peace. 9% in our country expect a more peaceful year, but 46% expect a more problematic one. A third of the Bulgarians asked think that 2024 will be the same in the context of peace and war.
A majority in our country sees a moderate risk from the use of nuclear weapons - 40%, 26% are worried that the risk is high, and 12% see no risk. The rest cannot judge. The past year has not led to significant changes in public attitudes regarding this indicator, although a certain appeasement is perceptible, the Gallup study also points out./BGNES
