French voters are being called to the polls at an extraordinary moment in their political history: the first round of snap parliamentary elections that could produce the country's first far-right government since the Nazi occupation in World War II - or no majority at all.
The outcome of the vote after the July 7 runoff and the extremely short campaign remains highly uncertain, with three main political blocs competing: the far-right National Assembly, President Emmanuel Macron's centrist alliance and the New Popular Front coalition, which includes center-left, green and far-left forces.
Here's a closer look:
Voting starts at 09:00 Bulgarian time and ends at 19:00.
The French system is complex and not proportional to nationwide support for a party. Legislators are elected by district. An MP candidate needs more than 50% of the vote to be elected.
Otherwise, the top two contenders, as well as anyone else who received the support of more than 12.5% of registered voters, proceed to a second round.
In some cases, three or four people make it to the second round, but some of them may withdraw to boost another challenger's chances, a tactic often used in the past to block far-right candidates.
Key party leaders are expected to unveil their strategy between the two rounds. This makes the outcome of the second round highly uncertain, depending on political maneuvering and how voters react.
"National Gathering", which leads in all opinion polls, hopes to be able to get an absolute majority, or at least 289 out of a total of 577 mandates.
The National Assembly is the more powerful of the two houses of the French Parliament. It has the final say in the lawmaking process compared to the conservative-dominated Senate.
Macron has a presidential term until 2027 and has said he will not step down before its end.
If a political force other than his centrist alliance gets a majority, Macron will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to that new majority.
In such a situation - called in France "cohabitation" - the government will implement policies that diverge from the president's plan. The modern French Republic has experienced three cohabitations, the last being under conservative President Jacques Chirac, with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin, from 1997 to 2002.
The Prime Minister reports to the Parliament, leads the government and introduces bills.
"In the case of cohabilitation, the implemented policies are mainly those of the Prime Minister," explained political scientist Jean Garrigues.
During cohabitation, the president is weaker, but still has some powers over foreign policy, European affairs, and defense. He is responsible for the negotiation and ratification of international treaties. The president is also the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces and is the one who holds the nuclear codes.
"It is possible for the president to prevent or temporarily stop the implementation of a certain number of projects of the prime minister, since he has the power to sign or not to sign government regulations or decrees," Garrigues added.
"Nevertheless, the Prime Minister has the authority to submit these ordinances and resolutions to a vote in the National Assembly, thereby overcoming the reluctance of the President," he noted.
During previous cohabitations, defense and foreign policy were considered the informal preserve of the president, who was usually able to find compromises with the prime minister so that France could speak with one voice abroad.
Yet today, the views of both the far-right and left-wing coalitions in these areas differ radically from Macron's approach and would likely be subject to tension during a potential cohabitation.
According to the Constitution, while "the president is the head of the army, the prime minister is the one who has the armed forces," Garrigues said.
"In the diplomatic sphere, the perimeter of the president is also significantly limited," added the expert.
National Assembly President Jordan Bardella said that if he became prime minister, he would oppose sending French troops to Ukraine, a possibility that Macron did not rule out. Bardella indicated that he would refuse French supplies to Kiev of long-range missiles and other weapons capable of hitting targets inside Russia itself.
If the left-wing coalition wins the election, it could disrupt France's diplomatic efforts in the Middle East.
The platform of the "New Popular Front" plans "immediate recognition of the Palestinian state" and "a break with the French government's grudging support" for the government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Macron had previously argued that recognition of a Palestinian state should come at a "convenient moment", suggesting that the war between Israel and Hamas precluded such a step at the moment.
The president can appoint a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats in the National Assembly - this has been the case with Macron's own centrist alliance since 2022.
Yet the National Assembly has already said it will reject such an option because it would mean a far-right government could soon be ousted by a no-confidence vote if other political parties unite.
According to the rules of the Constitution, Macron cannot dissolve the National Assembly again before July 2025.
The president could try to build a broad coalition from the left to the right, an option that sounds unlikely given the political differences.
According to experts, another complicated option is to appoint an "expert government" that is not connected to political parties, but still needs to be accepted by the majority in the National Assembly. Such a government is likely to deal primarily with day-to-day affairs rather than implementing major reforms.
If political talks drag on too long amid summer vacations and the Paris Olympics from July 26 to August 11, Garrigues said a "transitional period" during which Macron's centrist government "will still be in charge of current issues" is not out of the question. " pending further decisions.
"Whatever the type of National Assembly, it seems that the Constitution of the Fifth Republic is flexible enough to survive these complex circumstances," Melody Mock-Gruet, a public law expert who teaches at Sciences Po Paris, told the ABC . "Institutions are more solid than they appear, even when faced with this experimental exercise," he explained.
"Yet there remains one more unknown in the equation: the population's ability to accept the situation," Mock-Gruet stressed. | BGNES
