Leaders are meeting in Brussels on June 27 to agree on the EU's top jobs. This comes just days before French elections, which could be decisive for the entire bloc.
Key leaders have already reached an agreement on the top three EU jobs, with Ursula von der Leyen almost certain to be re-elected to lead the European Commission (EC).
Ahead of the two-day summit, a European diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity summed up the mood in Brussels, saying it now looked like "the road is straight ahead" to a deal.
But this does not completely exclude the possibility of surprises. Italian far-right leader Giorgia Meloni and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán expressed outrage at being sidelined.
This is because the proposed agreement divides the posts between the dominant European People's Party (EPP), the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberal Renew Europe party.
Former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa of the S&D will take over as President of the European Council, and Kaja Kalas, current Prime Minister of Estonia, will be the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs.
Against the background of early elections in France, which are expected to be won by the far right, there is an eagerness to resolve the issue of important EU seats.
High places aside, the summit will touch on the geopolitical challenges facing the bloc. First and foremost will be the war in Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelensky, will attend the meeting to sign an agreement on long-term security commitments for Kiev.
Leaders must also sign off on a "strategic program" outlining the bloc's priorities that officials have been mulling over for weeks - intended as a road map for the new leadership.
Experts suggest that giving more attention to migration could be one way to calm the anger of Meloni, who has been left out of the top job debate.
The top jobs deal must be backed by 15 EU leaders.
So far it's easy - in theory - as centrist groups make up the lion's share of the 27 leaders.
But the same names appeared during the first meeting in Brussels last week, and the leaders failed to cross the finish line.
Meloni protested most vehemently, believing that the success of her European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group should be taken into account.
The Italian prime minister again vented his anger in a speech to parliament on June 26, accusing the unnamed leaders of acting like "oligarchs" and betraying European citizens.
Meloni has made it clear he wants an influential role for Italy - starting with a vice-presidential seat on the next European Commission with voting rights over industry and agriculture.
Hungary's Orbán also spoke out against the centrist deal, saying that "instead of inclusion, it sows the seeds of division".
Even with the centrists in a strong position, however, diplomats said there was little desire to push through a deal on top jobs without a broader consensus - especially as von der Leyen still faces a tense EP vote on her candidacy at the end on July. | BGNES
---------
Emma Charlton, AFP