The British Chief of General Staff has called on the country to prepare for a major war and increase the reserve by training civilians, the BBC reports.
Representatives of Germany, Sweden, Norway, and NATO have recently warned of the risks of a Russian attack.
Their words reflect the growing anxiety in Europe that prevailed after the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive and in the run-up to the US presidential election, experts say.
Civil Defense for Great Britain
Young Britons are a pre-war generation and they must prepare for a national feat they may have to undertake soon, General Sir Patrick Saunders, the chief of the British Armed Forces General Staff, said last week.
The general proposed increasing personnel from the current 73,000 to 120,000 by creating a reserve of civilians - and cited the threat of conflict with Russia.
"[The war in] Ukraine brutally illustrates the point that regular armies start wars and civilian armies win them," Sanders said.
The last time there was conscription in Britain was in 1960, and since then matters of defense have completely disappeared from the lives of the majority of the population.
By civilian armies, the general understands a reserve of civilians who have a basic knowledge of military affairs and are ready to be mobilized in the event of a major war - such as in Russia or Ukraine.
Britain's defense secretary recently issued similar warnings, declaring that the country was moving "from a post-war to a pre-war world." But these words were perceived differently by the Chief of the General Staff than by a civilian politician.
The general's speech was received ambiguously. Although the Prime Minister's spokesman immediately clarified that there was no question of returning conscription, the press actively discussed whether the British were ready for compulsory military service.
The Liberal Guardian's Opinion column argues that having an effective military is important, but social spending and tackling global warming are just as important, so the military should be next in line for budget money.
The conservative Times, on the contrary, supported the general's call and even outlined a potential scenario for an increase in reserves. According to the newspaper, the training of Ukrainian troops in Britain could form the basis of the future reserve.
Since 2022, more than 30,000 Armed Forces soldiers, yesterday civilians, have been trained at British military bases as part of Operation Interflex.
An absolute minority of citizens - less than 1% - are now involved in national security in any form, says Frank Ledwidge, a senior lecturer in military strategy at the University of Portsmouth who previously served in British military intelligence.
According to him, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is only an occasion to draw public attention to a problem that arose as a result of long-term neglect of the armed forces.
The size of the Royal Navy is constantly shrinking, the army does not have the resources to field even a division, and the air force has seven fighter squadrons, comparable to Singapore's air force.
Like the rest of Europe, London's defense spending has been steadily slashed since the end of the Cold War. The British armed forces now number 73,000 and are experiencing an acute shortage of contractors.
"The armed forces are in chaos," Ledwidge told the BBC. According to him, the priority is to deal with the constant shortage of contract workers and to create conditions for them. He added that he knows active military personnel whose apartments do not have hot water.
Another cause of concern for British politicians is the increasingly real prospect of Donald Trump's return to the White House, which could be followed by a withdrawal of support for Ukraine and even a weakening of NATO.
"Panic" is how Ledwidge describes the mood of some of the strategists.
Russian Aggression: A Controversy About Timing
There are similar sentiments in the European Union.
"There is a slight panic in light of a potential Trump presidency," said Mina Alander, a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Politicians are asking themselves two questions: how long the EU can support Ukraine without US help, and what would happen if Washington left European NATO members alone with their adversaries?
Against this background, fears of a confrontation with Russia are growing, despite Vladimir Putin's assurances that he has no intention of going to war with NATO.
While a conflict between nuclear powers was once generally assumed to mean nuclear war, a wider range of scenarios are now being considered, including a clash between the Russian military and European armies without US support - and using all possible weapons, other than nuclear.
European politicians realize that Russia has used the two years of war in Ukraine more effectively than the West and has been able to increase production of ammunition and drones while rebuilding its military capacity, says Mina Alander.
Triumphalism quickly evaporates from the offices of power.
"To say that Russia is seriously weakened is an understatement. Russia is stronger than it was in 2022, and getting stronger,” suggests Frank Ledwidge.
In mid-January, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned of the risk of a Russian attack on NATO - and said his country needed five to eight years to prepare for one.
Earlier, German tabloid Bild published a leaked document from the German Defense Ministry outlining a possible scenario for a Russian attack on NATO's eastern borders in the fall of 2024, before the US election. In response to the leak, the Ministry of Defense said it was their job to calculate all possible scenarios.
Sweden's Minister of Civil Defense has declared that war may come to his country, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces has urged Swedes to prepare for war. As in Britain, these warnings provoked mixed public reactions.
Meanwhile, the head of Norway's armed forces said Europe has "two, maybe three years" to prepare for a Russian attack.
Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO's military committee and an admiral in the Royal Netherlands Navy, said European citizens should be prepared for a full-scale war with Russia in the next 20 years.
"The provocative statements are an attempt to wake up the inhabitants of these countries and explain that the situation has changed drastically," said Mina Alander.
Kyiv is counting on Europe to combine aid to Ukraine with investments in its defense, says Alena Glivko of the British think tank Henry Jackson Society.
"I hope that these processes will go hand in hand," says the political analyst.
In total, by October last year, the EU (both individual countries and joint programs) had sent more than €133 billion in military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
However the Western supply of artillery shells has decreased significantly in 2023, and this has led to a "shell famine" in the VSU.
According to a report by the Royal Institute for Defense Studies, the British armed forces had less ammunition than Russia used during the two days of the most intense fighting in the Donbas.
The production of new projectiles - both for Ukraine and for itself - requires huge investment and planning, something that many European countries are not yet ready for.
"It will be very difficult for Europe to support Ukraine and at the same time build up its defense capacity," says Alander of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
"Western leaders are beginning to realize that the post-Cold War era of peace was an anomaly, not a new reality." /BGNES
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