Arms imports into Europe have almost doubled in the past five years, partly due to the war in Ukraine, while exports from Russia have halved.
Ukraine has become the world's fourth-largest arms importer, while France has overtaken Russia as the second-largest exporter after the United States.
Arms imports into Europe rose by 94% in 2019-2023 compared to the previous five-year period, while overall global arms transfers fell slightly, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), AFP reported.
SIPRI prefers to analyze half-decade trends, as a few major contract deliveries can radically change annual figures.
The increase is "partly explained by the war in Ukraine, and Kiev has become the world's fourth-largest arms importer in the past five years," said SIPRI researcher Katarina Jokic.
SIPRI noted that at least 30 countries have supplied weapons as military aid to Ukraine since Russia invaded in February 2022.
But other European nations also increased imports, with a larger share coming from the world's number one arms exporter, the United States.
In the period 2019-2023, 55 percent of imports into Europe were from the US, compared to 35 percent in the period 2014-2018.
The trend is partly due to the fact that most European countries are NATO members and partners of the US in the development of weapons systems such as the F-35 fighter jet.
Russian exports are falling sharply
At the same time, increased imports from the US highlighted the desire of many European nations to acquire weapons quickly and therefore buy "off-the-shelf" models rather than develop new systems.
Globally, US exports rose 17% over the period, bringing its share of total arms exports to 42%.
Meanwhile, Russia, long the second largest exporter, saw its exports fall by 53% between 2014-2018 and 2019-2023.
Russia is not only exporting fewer weapons, but also to fewer recipients.
Moscow exported to only 12 countries in 2023, compared to 31 in 2019.
"There are also important changes in the policies of their biggest customer, China," Jokic said.
China has traditionally been one of the largest buyers of Russian arms, but is seeking to develop its domestic production.
China still accounts for 21% of Russian exports, while India is the largest recipient at 34%.
While Russia's exports fell, Beijing's saw a 47 percent increase, narrowly overtaking Russia to become the world's second largest exporter.
Violations of humanitarian law
France accounts for 11 percent of total arms exports in 2019-2023. The country has been particularly successful in selling its Rafale fighter jet outside of Europe.
The war in Gaza, which began in retaliation for a Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, has already affected arms imports into Israel.
It is mainly through US arms transfers, new military aid, or by accelerating existing contracts, according to SIPRI researcher Zain Hussain.
Hussein warned that the long-term impact of the conflict is harder to predict.
"We are already seeing in some European countries a kind of pressure from different actors or countries to limit arms to Israel during its military operations in Gaza because of potential violations of international humanitarian law," Hussein said.
Such measures could affect imports into Israel. /BGNES
