As self-absorbed as Americans are, we must not forget that politics does not exist in a vacuum.
Eight summers ago, Britain's stunning vote to leave the European Union presaged another disruptive political event of the year. The same willingness to reject established norms, anger against the changes brought about by immigration and globalization, and the intuitive appeal of an insurgent populist campaign brought Donald Trump to the White House.
So what is this summer's "Brexit"?
I don't see any omens. But looking at the US from the outside can be telling, and five trends or events stand out. Two of them bode well for Kamala Harris, two for Trump, and one is neutral.
1. The rise of strong women
Female leaders dominate this summer. In June, Claudia Sheinbaum defeated another woman to win the historic presidency of Mexico. Next month, the race for the leadership of Japan's ruling party opens the way, even the possibility is new to see the country's first female prime minister in the person of Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa.
Here in Europe, the gender divide has taken a new turn. The weakest politicians in Europe these days are French Emmanuel Macron and German Olaf Scholz.
The strongest? Their names are Ursula, Kaya, Georgia and Mette - with a respectful nod to Donald (Polish - Tusk).
Last month, Ursula von der Leyen won a second term as head of the European Commission, the EU's most powerful body, with more support than five years ago. Germany's centre-right politician JD Vance might wish to know that she is a mother of seven and a surprisingly strong crisis manager. Surprising because she was a very mediocre German defence minister, but in this bigger executive role she gets high praise for leading the EU through COVID-19, the cost of living crisis and the conflict in Ukraine. She will be joined in the leadership team in Brussels by Kaia Callas, the new head of EU foreign policy (the third woman in this post). As Estonia's first female prime minister, Kalas gained international fame as one of Europe's fiercest hawks on Russia after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Italian Giorgia Meloni and Danish Mette Frederiksen stand out in the European capitals. The prime ministers, who come from opposite political camps, have built strong domestic positions and exerted influence on the big stage - the right-wing Meloni by supporting Ukraine and appeasing the harder right, and the left-wing Frederiksen by challenging his political camp with a hardline approach to migration.
What is the explanation for all this? It's probably just a coincidence, except that there are simply more women in high positions. But some common features are noticeable. None of the Euroquartet relies on its gender. Their parties cover the entire political spectrum - from the farthest extremes of the right to the left. Also, they come across as tough and serious.
2. The American discourse in the conflict in the Middle East
The new constellation of women presidents of elite American universities is more sophisticated than their political counterparts. Columbia University's Minoush Shafiq resigned last week, becoming the third female university head to resign since the Gaza war.
The reasons for her immediate departure are somewhat unclear. Still, the bottom line — supported by other evidence — is that the Middle East will make for a hot fall on college campuses, and therefore in American politics.
At the start of the year, senior Democrats expected—hoped—that Gaza would disappear from the metaphorical front pages in time for the general election: Iran would be contained, the conflict in Gaza would end, and domestic politics would be calmed.
But it wouldn't. Events in the Middle East, largely beyond America's control, have heated up again in recent weeks.
Hezbollah and Iran are considering possible retaliatory strikes against Israel. The Israelis continue to move their war machine through Gaza. Joe Biden's exit in favour of Harris did not dissuade protesters from gathering in Chicago. Cultural fissures play so well in Republican "awakening" narratives, and anti-Semitism runs rampant on the left.
3. Joyful normality
The Harris-Waltz "Happy Warriors" routine - when was the last time an American presidential candidate promised "passion and love" like Kamala Harris? - fits the summer mood.
The good vibes from the Paris Olympics made the French happy. For years now, gloom has replaced arrogance as a defining national characteristic here, fueled by real and imagined feelings of decline and more recent political troubles, with pending parliamentary elections at the start of the summer failing to produce a government.
"I'm proud to be French," the leader of the French left, Raphael Glucksmann, says. France's far left and right, led by the older generation, can sound as downcast about the present and the future as the Republican presidential candidate. Glucksman, 44, who is part of the United Left Bloc that took a stunning first place in last month's parliamentary elections, projects positivity.
We are in a political moment where joy and normality have joined hands - in opposition to the anger and theatrics of the leaders of the current populist wave. In Poland, Prime Minister Tusk (that rare strong male European leader) defeated the Polish populist right for the second time in nine months, which a year ago seemed invincible. Tusk demonstrates competence and normality. In Britain, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is a hardliner, giving the Labor leader the biggest election victory in the party's history last month.
The bigger question in Europe is whether the nationalist/populist wave unleashed by Brexit has abated or even begun to recede. In the first case - yes, and in the second - no. The centre-right did better than expected in June's European Parliament elections. But the extreme right has also done well and is running the governments in the Netherlands, Italy, Hungary and Slovakia. France has never had so many far-right lawmakers in its national parliament or in Brussels.
4. There are still many angry and unhappy people
Starmer's honeymoon was short. The Bridget riots this month were the other theme of the European summer - they violently demonstrated anger against immigration. It doesn't matter that a bit of misinformation about the man who killed three young girls started the riots (he was neither a migrant nor a Muslim, as many believed, he just had a foreign name).
The new Labor government has had a far more brutal experience from the far right than what the Biden camp faced politically from its leftover Gaza: A no-win situation. Starmer hit out at the anti-immigrant far right as the facts demanded, but that made him look too soft on Islamism and anti-Semitism.
5. Ukraine's August surprise
Ukraine's successful invasion of Russia—focus for a moment on those five words—is a public relations masterstroke that may or may not have strategic implications.
By seizing part of Russia's Kursk region, the Ukrainians momentarily changed the narrative of Europe's worst war since 1945. They exposed the rot and incompetence in Putin's army and put him in an embarrassing position, as did the failure of the Russian attack on Kyiv in 2022. They provided the best answer to the gloomy mood that settled last year with the failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive - the previous turning point in the narrative of this war. Now they are trying to hold that front, distract and contain the ongoing Russian assault on their eastern front.
Whether we like it or not, America's standing in the world will be determined by whether its ally Ukraine or Putin and his patron China prevail in this conflict. Biden's “trickle-down” provision of weapons and restrictions on their use has harmed Ukraine's ability to achieve significant enough successes on the battlefield to change the course of events. Will Kursk be just one link in the war - or the moment when Ukraine and its backers, most notably America, will see and seize the opportunity to end it on terms acceptable to them? The following weeks will answer the questions on the ground in Ukraine, in the White House and the American election campaign. | BGNES
Matthew Kaminsky, Politico
