After the June 9 election, the parties must find their way back and form a regular cabinet that will provide stability and predictability for citizens and businesses alike.
Political attacks, taken down billboards, skeletons from the closet, and extraordinary meetings - the end of another election campaign has come, reported BGNES.
The parties and coalitions had one month to present their visions of governance and gather the support of the citizens in the 2-in-1 elections - national and European. The important question that concerns everyone is whether, after June 9, the current political opponents will be able to sit down at the table and talk about a joint government in the national parliament. And, of course, how legitimate and stable it will be.
According to sociological surveys, even after this series of extraordinary parliamentary elections, the main political forces in the 50th NA will be like those in the 49th - GERB in first position, controversial second places for We Continue the Change - Democratic Bulgaria (WCC-DB), Vazrazhdane political party and Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), followed by Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP). This time the There is Such People (ITN) political party will be on the edge of the barrier to entry into the Bulgarian National Assembly.
This campaign, like the previous ones, passed without any meaningful and broad debate between the main contenders, at the expense of which, however, new red dividing lines were set, and it is not clear whether they will be overcome in the negotiations for future power.
Until recently, the partners in power GERB-UDF (GERB-Union of Democratic Forces), WCC-DB and MRF attacked each other with billboards, scandalous recordings of party conversations, and extraordinary meetings during the otherwise month-long recess of the 49th National Assembly.
For example, the WCC-DB put up pre-election billboards in Plovdiv and Sofia with the caption "Who do you want to be your prime minister?", referring to Nikolay Denkov on the one hand and Boyko Borisov and Delyan Peevski on the other. A sharp reaction followed from the leader of GERB, and the Central Election Commission (CEC) ordered the billboards to be removed due to violations of the Electoral Code. WCC-DB, for its part, filed a complaint with the Supreme Administrative Court, but it remained without consideration.
On the other hand, MRF leader Delyan Peevski made scandalous revelations, according to which, during the nine-month rule, Hristo Ivanov, the co-chairman of "Democratic Bulgaria", asked for support from the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, proposed an exchange of posts, "retirement of Borisov" and liquidation of the coalition their partners - "We continue the change".
Ivanov, for his part, dismissed the claims with the cursory explanation that Peevski "can't get off the Magnitsky sanctions list", he can't "become prime minister and the coalition with PP is extremely stable." After the election, however, whether the coalition government will be is starting to become more and more a mystery.
The tension between the three main formations in the past parliament also heated up with the extraordinary sessions of the parliament requested by the WCC-DB - one to "guarantee the increase in pensions by 11% from July 1" (a decision about which was taken by the Council of Ministers a week before the PP request an extraordinary meeting of the National Assembly on the subject - note ed. ), and the other - to hear the acting Prime Minister about our position regarding the UN resolution on Srebrenica and discussion of a draft decision on the conclusion of a collective labour agreement in the "Healthcare" sector. Subsequently, a number of positions appeared, according to which the requested meetings are pointless, since the 11% increase in pensions is a fact, and in the UN Council, Bulgaria automatically supported the Resolution condemning the genocide in Srebrenica, as it is a co-author of the document.
The month-long election campaign of the parties fighting for the national parliament was accompanied by such scandals.
However, what was the effect of the political scandals and the sluggish campaign - BGNES sought the opinion of political scientists and sociologists.
Political scientist Boyan Balev stated for BGNES that a broad debate involving the main contenders was missing. “The main problem is that the main political players are campaigning too often, it's normal to run out of ideas for anything. It is very difficult for them to talk about a more serious future when they themselves are not sure whether there will be a government after the elections," Boyan Balev believes.
According to him, the campaign was saturated mostly with mutual attacks and accusations, and he himself does not think that the parties and coalitions are fighting for an increase in voter turnout, on the contrary, they rely on their solid electorate. "They were trying to bring down the opponent's result rather than achieving something more as a result for themselves through positive messages," the political scientist specified.
He commented that it is becoming less and less of a problem for people who, until the election day, exchanged heavy accusations, then sat down at the same table again and negotiated. "Whether there will be a coalition or an assembly, the parties will rather find an option to postpone the next elections." It is not impossible not to have a stable government in the 50th National Assembly," Boyan Balev believes. In the new parliament, however, the main components will be GERB and MRF, and what part of WCC-DB will fit into the administration is a complicated question. "There will be, if not the entire coalition, then individual deputies who will be included in the new majority," the political scientist believes.
The political scientist and sociologist Assoc. Stoicho Stoichev commented to BGNES that fewer and fewer voters rely on the election campaign to form their attitudes. "The election campaign is for the small political forces, for the main contenders the campaign is more of a formality," believes Associate Professor Stoichev.
According to him, the second place in the elections is very controversial. "The WCC-DB electorate is more specific. It strongly mobilizes on the election day itself, and I expect them to get a higher result than predicted by the sociological agencies," said the associate professor, after which he emphasized that "Vazrazhdane" political party and MRF are possibly positioned in the second position. "The situation there is interesting, but the campaign does not contribute. Nothing fundamental has happened to change attitudes," the political scientist believes.
He explained that there are several options for forming a majority. "We may see a similar situation as in 2014. The GERB group will not be as big, but it will again be the first political force. The possibility is to form a large coalition with GERB and two, three or four other parties, an expert cabinet similar to the "Gabrovski" draft cabinet, and the third is a GERB minority government," the sociologist believes.
He still expressed the opinion that this time he will try for a cabinet directly with the first mandate of GERB because sociological agencies show that there is no doubt about the first position, but Borisov is unlikely to take the post of next prime minister. "It is not clear what the result of WCC-DB will be in the elections and whether "Solidary Bulgaria" and "Blue Bulgaria" will not enter. If these two forces enter, then the WCC-DB can be replaced. As for the participation of the MRF, I don't know whether it will be obvious or not, but I am rather sceptical that they will officially come to power," Stoychev stated.
Political scientist Assoc. Dr Milen Ljubenov emphasized to BGNES that there is nothing unusual in the past election campaign from the previous ones. "We didn't see any new and interesting messages, slogans, voter fatigue also affected the campaign," Lyubenov believes. The political scientist emphasized that the European elections gave an additional boost to the interest in political messages. Without them, the interest would have been even lower. "It remains to be seen what the voter turnout will be, the latest sociological research indicates that it will be a little higher, but this is not due to the election campaign," specified Prof. Milen Ljubenov, who nevertheless emphasized that about 2, 5 million will be the voters, and this is a low turnout by Bulgarian standards.
According to the political scientist, this time the electoral fragmentation is higher and we see it in the polls. "We will see if there won't be a surprise in the elections and if there won't be a new formation that will overcome the electoral barrier of 4% to enter the National Assembly. For this reason, I do not rule out a parliament with more than six participants, which further complicates the coalition formulas and makes them more complicated," Lubenov clarified. He added that a coalition in the form of GERB, WCC-DB and MRF seems impossible to him if the result of WCC-DB is fourth. "A fourth result or one that is weaker than expected for the coalition will raise the question of their political future altogether. They will have to decide what political approach to choose - whether to be part of a government, which we saw that they had a hard time explaining to their voters in recent months, or to be an opposition where they can restore some part of this lost potential," he believes. the political scientist Assoc. Dr. Milen Ljubenov.
After the June 9 election, the parties must find their way back and form a regular cabinet that will provide stability and predictability for citizens and businesses alike. And the interesting negotiations are yet to come. | BGNES
