As the elections approach, the declared voter turnout is slightly increasing. About 40% of adult citizens, or approximately 2,600,000 - 2,650,000 people, declare their willingness to vote for the National Assembly. The campaign can increase their number by bringing it closer to the participation in the parliamentary elections last April, i.e. about 2,700,000.
However, given the negative public energy that political scandals have produced in recent months, it is difficult to expect a high electoral wave. The intrigue and the stake will be sought mainly in the redistribution of political preferences among the current electoral body.
This is stated in the traditional nationally representative survey of Alpha Research on electoral attitudes at the start of the election campaign.
The situation with the European elections is interesting.
The vote for them appears to be weaker than the national vote (about 35%, or about 2,300,000 people), but higher than in 2019, when just under 2,100,000 citizens went to the polls. The difference is due to the fact that when the two types of elections coincide, the national vote "pulls" up the European vote as well. Here we must take into account the fact that our compatriots in Turkey, Great Britain, the USA and other countries outside the EU cannot participate in the European elections, but they can vote for the Bulgarian National Assembly. Which means that, in all probability, there will be a 3 to 5 percent difference between the activity of the two choices, commented Alpha Research.
Vote for the National Assembly
GERB-SDS enter the race as favorites with the votes of 25.4% of those who decided to vote. Their voters are characterized by high mobilization, the second strongest after that of DPS sympathizers. They are relatively evenly represented in the country. The vote in Sofia is a problem and a challenge. Obviously, the participation of both Borissov and other prominent members of the party aims to overcome this deficit, incl. by contrasting the previous with the current administration of the capital.
PP-DB started with significantly weakened positions after the collapse of the rotation and the subsequent public scandals. At the moment, with 17.5%, it retains the second place in the voters' preferences, but is almost 8 points behind GERB. The coalition loses about 200,000 votes from its vote in 2023. At the same time, strong attacks against her have the effect of uniting her more die-hard supporters, but not attracting the fringes. It hardly adds votes from other parties, on the contrary, it is a "donor" of other political forces. The main goal of her campaign will be to interrupt this process and return at least some of her lost voters.
DPS (14.9%) and Vazrazhdane (14.6%) have practically equal positions at the start of the campaign and with a very high degree of mobilization of their sympathizers. Both parties are distinguished by lower electoral interest in non-election periods and by quickly attracting votes in the elections themselves. However, different dynamics can be expected with them within the campaign. DPS has no competitor in the niche of its potential sympathizers and its main goal is to get more of them to the polls. However, from Vazrazhdane, which currently attracts supporters of both PP-DB and GERB who are disappointed by the "assembly", votes may be cast for Solidarna Bulgaria or ITN. These processes portend an interesting development in this spectrum.
The BSP is in a slight downward trend, but with 8.5% of the voters' vote, it maintains a lead over the "dissidents" who broke away from it in the form of Solidarna Bulgaria (2.6%) and the Left (1.9%). The upheaval of the left and the success of Vanya Grigorova in the local elections cannot exclude a more significant dynamic among these political subjects. Moreover, even now there is a significant exchange of voters between Vazrazhdane, ITN, BSP, the Left and Solidarna Bulgaria. Where the voters will eventually land, navigating the stormy left-populist sea, is difficult to say now. However, there is no doubt that the campaign has the potential to influence this part of the political space and determine how much of it will be utilized through presence in the 50th National Assembly and what will remain outside it.
In the right-wing spectrum, only the Blue Bulgaria coalition (2.5%) has more distinct positions, which will also have to rely on the campaign to get out of Blue Sofia and achieve a better national result.
Vote for the European Parliament
The projection of the vote for the European Parliament among those determined to vote broadly reproduces the vote for the National Assembly, with a few more interesting differences:
Higher mobilization of PP-DB (up to 18.5%), while keeping the vote for GERB (25.1%) and as a result, a certain closing of the gap between them - up to 6.6%.
Slight retreat of DPS (14.4%) before Vazrazhdane (14.8%), but the two parties are again in close positions.
Fluctuation in the vote for ITN (4.8%) and a high risk for the party to remain below the higher threshold for the European vote (5.88%).
To a large extent, GERB and DPS will keep their number of MEPs. Revival will increase the vote of the nationalists represented in the previous European Parliament by VMRO. BSP will be the big loser, with most likely three of its previous mandates going to PP-DB.
The problems facing the country: Although political life in recent months has been dominated by scandals and personal accusations, for the vast majority of Bulgarian citizens these struggles are beyond their concerns and the issues that are important to them. The top three topics on which people want to hear the commitments of politicians in the current campaign are: corruption, low income, health care. Demography, Bulgarian production and road infrastructure are the next significant problems on which the voters expect specific solutions.
Intrigues:
The start of the 2 in 1 election campaign, for the National and European Parliament, outlines at least three intrigues, the answers to which will be sought until the last moment:
Voter turnout - falling below current levels could lead to more significant changes in results; a larger number of voters would not only increase the public legitimacy of the new MPs, but also reduce the power of the controlled vote.
How many political forces will be able to form a government. At the moment, the probability of having a majority of two parliamentary groups is low. The more parties enter parliament, the more difficult this will become. However, the mathematical (not necessarily political) possibilities for coalition combinations will also increase.
Will the dispersion of the left lead to the emergence of a competitive left-wing political entity in the parliament, or, as with the right, will this vote remain unutilized for a long time, Alpha Research concludes. /BGNES
The present study was conducted in the period April 25 - May 2, 2024. by Alpha Research, is published on the agency's website and is implemented with its own funds. The survey was conducted among 1,000 adults from all over the country. A stratified two-stage sample was used with a quota according to the main socio-demographic characteristics. The information was collected through a direct standardized interview with tablets at the homes of the respondents.
