In 2024, the Balkans will be threatened by a Balkan war. The Western Balkans are likely to face an increased risk of inter-ethnic violence.
That's according to an assessment by the US intelligence community in its annual threat report for 2024, reports BGNES.
"Nationalist leaders are likely to exacerbate tensions for political gain, and external actors will amplify and exploit ethnic differences to increase or protect their regional influence or prevent greater integration of the Balkans into the EU or Euro-Atlantic institutions", experts warn.
The document identifies the most glaring dangers of a Balkan blow-up:
- Clashes between Serb nationalists and Kosovo authorities that led to deaths and injuries, including to NATO peacekeepers, in 2023, when a group of armed Serbs entered northern Kosovo and killed a Kosovo police officer.
- Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik has taken provocative steps to neutralize international oversight in Bosnia and secure de facto secession of his Republika Srpska. His actions may prompt the leaders of the Bosnian Muslim population to strengthen their own capacity to defend their interests. This could lead to violent conflicts that could overwhelm peacekeeping forces.
Potential turbulence within states
Intra-state turmoil-whether caused by domestic unrest, economic discontent, or governance challenges-can fuel cycles of violence, insurgency, and internal conflict. Challenges are often intertwined with deteriorating socioeconomic outcomes, widespread corruption, population shifts, and the pressure and spread of extremist ideologies from terrorist and insurgent groups.
Over the past decade, the erosion of democracy around the world, tensions within U.S. alliances, and challenges to international norms have made it more difficult for the United States and its allies to address global problems while creating greater opportunities for rogue governments and groups to operate with impunity. Below, we highlight a few cases that will have the potential for greater impact on global security and the potential for action by the United States, its allies, and partners," the document adds. /BGNES
