"I think they are much more cautious now, given previous misjudgments about who will win," Ivan Vejvoda of the Institute for the Humanities in Vienna told Radio Free Europe, BGNES reports.
Unlike in 2020, when the Belgrade government openly backed Republican candidate Donald Trump, President Vucic now says he "has preferences" but will not reveal them publicly. "Vucic doesn't hide well and it's obvious that he prefers Trump to the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris," says Daniel Sarver, a professor at Johns Hopkins University in the US.
In fact, the pro-government media openly supports Donald Trump. The independent Bureau of Social Research (BIRODI) shows that positive mentions of the Republican candidate dominate the media. "They promote him for two reasons: the desire to see an authoritarian model of governance gain international legitimacy, in addition to the commercial interests at stake," says Zoran Gavrilovic, director of BIRODI. "The state-influenced media try to present Trumpism as a positive alternative that serves the autocratic regime in Serbia," he says.
He adds that a large part of Serbian society turns to populist leaders and does not support democratic forms of government, which is confirmed by surveys that show Russian President Vladimir Putin is the most popular world leader among Serbian citizens. He is followed by Chinese President Xi Jinping and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who openly supported Donald Trump ahead of the US elections. According to Daniel Sarver, Donald Trump is "much more popular" in Serbia than his rival Kamala Harris. "He is an ethnic nationalist, a superman, which makes him attractive to many people in Serbia," says Daniel Serwer.
At the World Security Forum in Prague on 31 August, Vucic himself said he "has preferences but will not express them publicly". A month later, he said that the outcome of the elections was very uncertain and that Serbia had to think "how to preserve and protect itself". "We are looking at who might be on Donald Trump's team and who might be on Kamala Harris' team," he told Pink TV on 26 September.
On September 23, the son of Republican nominee Donald Trump Jr. arrived in Belgrade, where he hosted a dinner with Serbian businessmen. The topics discussed were "investments and the attractiveness of the business environment in the region and in Serbia from the perspective of US investors". Donald Trump Jr. is vice president of the Trump Organization, which includes hundreds of companies and partnerships that own or manage commercial buildings, hotels and other assets around the world. He participated in and supported his father's presidential campaign and was a witness during the 2023 trial in which the Trump family was charged with tax crimes. According to the charges, the Trump Organization exaggerated its wealth and falsified business documents.
A few months before Trump Jr's visit, Serbia signed a contract with the company of Donald Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to "revitalize" the former General Staff complex in downtown Belgrade, on whose ruins two buildings with apartments and hotels are planned to be built, although this property is still protected as a cultural property. The contract has not yet been published, but on 18 March The New York Times reported that the investment is worth USD 500 million and that Serbia will receive 22% of the profits.
Washington's former special envoy for dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, Richard Grenell, who regularly visits Belgrade, is also negotiating the purchase of the plant. "Kushner and Grenell want to control valuable real estate, and this will give Trump another reason to be friendly to Serbia, because nothing motivates him more than money," explains Daniel Serwer.
Richard Grenell visited Serbia after Trump lost the 2020 election. In the pro-government media, he is portrayed as someone who is favourable to Belgrade. He himself said that the two problems in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina are Europe and the government of Kosovo Prime Minister Albin Kurti. Aleksandar Vucic awarded him with the Order in October 2023. "I have the honour, on behalf of the citizens of Serbia, to express my gratitude to the man who, in a short time and with hard work, has had a significant impact on the relations between Serbia and the United States and has enriched the ties between our peoples in a significant way," the Serbian president said at the time.
Vucic twice made false predictions about the results of the US elections. The first time was in 2016, when he supported the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, who lost to Donald Trump in the presidential race. A few days after the announcement of the results, billboards in support of the new US president appeared on the streets of Belgrade. Four years later, during Donald Trump's campaign for a new mandate, Serbian officials did not hide their support. Ivica Dacic, the former head of diplomacy and now minister of interior, said in June 2020 that Belgrade should be more active in supporting Trump and motivating Serbs in the US to vote for him.
In September 2020, he is expected to announce his intention to vote against him. Aleksandar Vucic signed at the White House with former Kosovo Prime Minister Avdula Hoti an Agreement on Normalization of Economic Relations between Serbia and Kosovo, known as the Washington Agreement. Donald Trump, who was present at the signing, described the agreement as a success and Aleksandar Vucic received a pen and the keys to the White House as a gift. On his return to Belgrade, the Serbian president said that his American counterpart was facing a "dirty campaign" but that he was nevertheless confident that he would win the election. The projects foreseen in the Washington Agreement, such as the construction of the Nis-Pristina "peace highway", the railway and the division of Lake Gazivoda, have only been partially launched. Several kilometres of road have been built from Nis to the Kosovo border. The letters of intent to establish an air route between Pristina and Belgrade, signed in January 2020 in the presence of Richard Grenell and National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien and which the former US president described as a "new victory", remained at the stage of intentions. As for the "mini Schengen" project, later renamed "Open Balkans", launched by Serbia, Albania and North Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina did not join.
"Vucic hopes that Trump as president will support the division of Kosovo, which will lead to the division of Bosnia. With the current situation in Montenegro, this would create the 'Serbian world' he desires," says Daniel Serwer. In 2018, an exchange of territories between Serbia and Kosovo was proposed as a way to normalise their relations. Although the Trump administration has not officially endorsed the move, former national security adviser John Bolton has suggested it could be included "if circumstances require it." But Brussels has warned that it would lead to even bigger problems in the region with the risk of cascading border changes.
Unlike the Trump administration, which has often expressed disagreement with the European Union's approach to the Balkans, Joe Biden's team has sought to synchronise with Brussels to support the region's European integration and resolve key issues, particularly in the Belgrade-Pristina talks. However, according to Ivan Vejvoda, we should not expect significant changes in Balkan politics, regardless of the outcome of the elections. "It is pointless to think that anything will be completely different. There may be changes in terms of Europe and even within the United States, but not when it comes to our region, which is small compared to other global challenges," the Serbian scholar believes. | BGNES
