That would include a possible softening of Bucharest's current support for Ukraine in its fight against the invasion of Russian forces.
When will the elections take place?
First and foremost are the country's presidential elections. The incumbent centre-right President Klaus Iohannis is completing his second term and a decade in office. More than a dozen candidates are vying to replace him.
The first round is on 24 November, and if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, the top two will fight it out on 8 December. In the meantime, on 1 December, which is also the country's national holiday, parliamentary elections will be held in Romania.
What is at stake?
According to Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of the Globalfocus Centre, a Bucharest-based think tank, the stakes are high in both votes.
First, she said, "Romania faces two important realities in the coming year: the threat of further instability and conflict in the region and globally, especially in the context of [President-elect Donald] Trump's White House.
Secondly, "the risks of a deepening of the economic and financial crisis, given that [Romania] currently has one of the highest twin budget deficits and inflation rates in the EU, and the price of goods continues to increase while government spending remains high (largely because of the bloated state apparatus)", Popescu-Zamfir told Radio Free Europe.
What do voters care about?
The economy and corruption seem to top the list of what most voters care about.
"Voters are interested in the cost of living, reducing inflation and the budget deficit, which is among the highest in the EU," Popescu-Zamfir said. They are also interested in "fiscal predictability and avoiding potentially very austerity measures".
Romania has been rocked by high inflation in recent years. In 2022, it was 13.8%, and in 2023 it has dropped to 10.4%, according to data from the Romanian Statistical Institute. In 2024, the rate, so far, is just over 5 percent, a bigger drop but still among the highest in the EU.
Corruption, in both the public and private spheres, has long plagued Romania. In the public health sector, bribes are still widely alleged in hospitals and clinics across the country in order to see a doctor or receive treatment, despite some progress in curbing this practice.
Although domestic issues prevail, voters are also worried about foreign affairs, namely Russia's ongoing war against Romania's neighbour Ukraine and how this conflict may change after the replacement of US President Joe Biden with Trump, who has suggested that support should be reduced.
"The threat of regional instability and war is also a source of concern. Voters are interested in the candidates' positions on Ukraine, Russia, Trump, the extent of their Euro-Atlantic orientation," Popescu-Zamfir said, adding that voters are also focused on "the ability of presidential candidates to lead the country in the event of an escalation of tensions with Russia."
Romania has become a key ally of Ukraine, not only providing training and military equipment, including the Patriot missile defense system, but also playing a key role in transporting Ukrainian grain and other agricultural goods to global markets. Much of the credit for Bucharest's pro-Ukrainian stance goes to current President Iohannis.
For NATO, Romania is a key ally on the eastern flank, with the alliance building its largest military base there. Although he has no executive power, the Romanian president has considerable decision-making powers, including on national security and foreign policy issues. Elected for a five-year term, the president can also reject party nominees for prime minister and government nominees for judicial appointments.
How might the elections affect support for Ukraine?
Hints that the new president may not be such a staunch supporter of Ukraine could be seen during the three-hour televised presidential debate on 18 November. Almost all the candidates said Ukraine should cede territory to Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict - a position Trump has offered as the only way forward.
"It is obvious that Ukraine does not have the resources to regain all the lost territories. Crimea is almost impossible to take back, and Donbas is already Russified," said Mircea Joana, a former NATO deputy secretary-general who is running as an independent. He also argues that Ukraine must retain its sovereignty and Western orientation if it gives up the land.
Elena Lasconi of the centre-right Union for the Salvation of Romania was the only presidential candidate to oppose the idea of Ukraine giving up its land, saying it would embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.
"If Ukraine cedes territory, Putin will not stop," she said. "We have to help Ukraine win this war."
George Simion, leader of the far-right, ultranationalist Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), said if elected he would tell Trump it was time for peace, but he should consider allowing Ukraine to join NATO.
Of the top five contenders, Lasconi is the most optimistic about NATO, calling for the military alliance to have a greater presence in Romania. At the other pole is Simion - criticized by some rivals for being pro-Russian and anti-European - who has proposed that Romania remain in NATO but be "neutral."
Who is likely to win?
The presidential debate was not attended by Romanian Prime Minister and Social Democratic Party leader Marcel Ciolacu and former centre-right Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca, who heads the Romanian Senate and is part of the ruling coalition with Ciolacu's party.
Cholaku's absence was explained by his relative confidence. Opinion polls show him leading among the top five of the 13 presidential candidates. This is despite the fact that Cholaku is facing accusations of lying about links to a fraudulent real estate company, which has even sparked calls for his resignation.
In a possible run-off election, Cholakou could face Simion, a match-up that Popescu-Zamfir suggests is favoured by the Social Democrats.
"The Social Democrats are counting on clearing the way for Simion to make it to the second round, not one of the other contenders, hoping that people will flock to the polls to oppose the AUR leader's victory," Popescu-Zamfir said.
Popescu-Zamfir said that for many Romanians, Simion's victory would be "a guaranteed turn towards [Hungarian Prime Minister] Viktor Orbán's style of governance and ideology: anti-Western, pro-Russian, autocratic, socially conservative, narrowing the space for civil rights and freedoms".
Ciolacu's Social Democratic Party is also expected to prevail over the other parties in the 1 December parliamentary elections and is likely to have the first opportunity to form a new cabinet, notes analyst Veronica Angel.
Whatever the outcome, "Romania is primed mostly for political continuity, belt-tightening fiscally and economically to correct the deficit and inflation," Popescu-Zamfir said.
At the same time, the analyst said that Bucharest would "seek cooperation with the Trump administration while staying the course of support for Ukraine as much as possible". | BGNES
