Local elections in Serbia - between Vucic's party and the splintered opposition

Partial local elections will be held in Serbia today in 88 Serbian cities and municipalities, including the largest cities - Belgrade, Novi Sad and Nis, BGNES reported.

4.2 million citizens have the right to vote on June 2. Voting takes place in municipalities where there were no local elections in December 2023, when the parliamentary elections were also held. The ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SPP) of President Aleksandar Vucic then won on both fronts. The last local elections in most of the mentioned cities were in 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Vucic's party is again the favorite today, amid the struggles in the opposition camp in recent months. The coalition of opposition parties and candidates "Serbia Against Violence" was a strong competitor to the SPP late last year, but today it is split and weak.

After the December election, international observers condemned the vote for a number of irregularities, including vote-buying, threats against journalists and opposition politicians, importation of voters from Republika Srpska.

The violations sparked multi-thousand anti-government protests that rocked Belgrade. The Serbian High Court later rejected the opposition's request to annul the vote. However, the opposition was unable to maintain unity. Disputes over the name of the coalition and the desire to boycott the vote by key figures are the reason for the split.

Belgrade

In the December vote, Serbia Against Violence took 43 of the 110 seats in Belgrade's municipal council, compared to the 49 won by the SPP. After weeks of negotiations, the SPP failed to form a majority and new elections were called in March.

Today, the residents of the Serbian capital will choose between 14 lists. The SPP nominated the current mayor Aleksandar Šapić as a candidate for mayor of Belgrade. A group of parties from the splintered "Serbia Against Violence" coalition is running in the elections with the "We Choose Belgrade" ticket. Their candidate for mayor of Belgrade is Dobritsa Veselinovic.

Some of the opposition parties are boycotting the vote because they are convinced that the election conditions have not changed since December 17. Then the international observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe /OSCE/ issued 25 recommendations to improve the conditions, after noting the total dominance in the public space of Vučić "which, together with the systemic advantages of the ruling party", has created "unfair conditions for the competitors".

"Fundamental freedoms were generally respected in the campaign, but it was marred by harsh rhetoric, media bias, pressure on public sector officials and misuse of public resources," the report said.

The European Parliament /EP/, for its part, requested an investigation into electoral fraud. An EP resolution expressed concern that the vote "deviated from international standards and Serbian commitments to free and fair elections" due to "persistent and systematic abuse of institutions and media by the rulers" to gain "an unfair and unjustified advantage ". The two key points concerned the opening of an international investigation and the possibility of freezing pre-accession funds from Brussels to Belgrade.

Sociology

IPSOS Agency gives an estimated result of 47.7% for SPP in Belgrade. In second place is the list "Doctor Savo Manoilovic-I am Belgrade-Kreni-promeni" with 16.3 percent of the votes. With 16.2% support is the formation "We Choose Belgrade" - the successor of "Serbia Against Violence".

Turnout is likely to hover between 47.2% and 52%.

"National Survival"

Before the election, Vučić used ultra-nationalist rhetoric to rally his electoral base. In recent months, he categorically refused a repeat of the parliamentary vote, announcing that he would not take part in the "circus performance of the opposition". According to Vucic, the opposition receives money from foreign countries "to destroy Serbia".

In May, the head of state attended the session of the General Assembly in New York, where, wrapped in the Serbian flag, he denounced the adopted Resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica, saying that it "will open old wounds" and "create complete political chaos".

"The main narrative of the campaign, promoted even before the election was announced, presented the election in Belgrade as a matter of national survival and future," said a report by the Belgrade-based Center for Research, Transparency and Accountability.

In May, an opposition-backed law was passed banning any "person who moved to live in Serbia in the past year from voting in their new constituency".

The new law follows allegations that Serbs from neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, specifically Republika Srpska, were bussed into Belgrade to illegally vote in favor of the SPP and Vucic.

The Serbia Against Violence movement was created after last year's mass shootings in the country, which prompted hundreds of thousands to take to the streets in demonstrations that turned into months of anti-government protests.

Vucic has repeatedly described the protests as a "foreign conspiracy", claiming that without his leadership, Serbia will be left with no direction and no future.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) election observation mission said earlier that the June 2 election would be held under "continued dominance of the ruling party and the president" without real reforms following the recommendations. /BGNES