There is an unwritten rule in international relations: succeeding in misleading, deceiving, or deceiving someone is just as dangerous as failing to do so. If the deceived subsequently discovers the truth, it is possible to resort to retaliation under the strict application of international law.
It is especially dangerous when fraud is used by the top officials of small entities against large entities, be it states or international organizations. This level of irresponsibility can only be shown by complete amateurs. Serbian President Vučić succeeded with his primitive, ignorant and autocratic policy in dragging Serbia into this labyrinth. What is it really about?
What did the West expect from Vucic?
After the collapse of the state architecture of the Balkans in the 1990s and its continuing rearrangement in the first decade (restoration of the statehood of Montenegro and declaration of independence of Kosovo), Serbia, as the largest country in the region, found itself faced with a historic choice. The options were two - to become a reliable factor of stability and progress in this part of the world, accepting the standards and principles of modern civilization, visible above all in the scope of the European Union, or to remain trapped in retrograde ideas and policies, mythomania and megalomania.
The West expected from Vucic above all a departure from the Great Serbian, nationalist agenda that led to the bloody tragedy of the 1990s. He then called for building a real democratic society with the rule of law and the rule of law, promoting and protecting universal human rights and freedoms, and advocating for the equality of people before the law.
Maybe the expectations were too high
Following these basic principles, which would guide Serbia towards the European Union and the West, Vucic was also expected to build a sustainable relationship with the authorities in Pristina, which would eventually lead to the normalization of relations and eventual recognition of Kosovo's independence by Belgrade. Moreover, the United States and the European Union have patiently waited for Vucic to deviate from Russia's destructive policies aimed at the Western Balkans to cause instability and tension as far as possible from its marginal lines of priority interests. Washington and Brussels predicted that Vucic could become the main guarantor of stability and security in this part of Europe, given Serbia's size relative to its neighbours.
Germany was singled out for the successful implementation and monitoring of Western policy towards Vucic. Nothing strange, if one takes into account the extremely negative attitude of the Serbian people towards the USA, but also towards Great Britain, after the NATO air campaign in 1999.
Belgrade never recognized the legitimacy of the bombings, which came in response to Serbian war crimes and crimes against humanity.
What did Vucic give the West?
Instead of the expected and promised programs and results, Vučić delivered domestically his authoritarian, undemocratic, unchecked and unlimited power. This is manifested in the manipulation and theft of elections, illegal control of the judiciary, security services and media, harassment of independent journalists and critical intellectuals, corruption and crime on an unprecedented scale.
In foreign policy, Vučić relentlessly worked to destroy and destabilize the region, exactly the opposite of what his Western partners expected of him. He launched Serbian World, and questioned the nature of the Srebrenica massacre, calling it a "great crime" but not genocide. Vučić violates the standards set by the Dayton Peace Agreement, fights the Budva and Nikšić elections in Montenegro, openly supports his representatives in the country financially and logistically and thus obstructs the democratic processes in an attempt to block the negotiations for Montenegro's accession to EU. After all, he continues to make the West a laughing stock with the grotesque investigation by the judicial authorities (under his direct control) of the terrorist attack in the village of Banska in Northern Kosovo (September 24, 2024).
Germany received a new task
The cheated West has the right to take revenge on the cheater by strictly applying the norms of international law. Germany was again chosen to nullify the effects of Vucic's policies in the region. And Germans are known as people who don't like to waste time.
Germany, along with Rwanda and other countries, brought the Srebrenica Genocide Resolution to the UN General Assembly. The resolution, which was to be voted on on May 2 of this year (the discussion has reportedly been postponed until the UN Security Council session after May 6 due to sending the main text for revision) condemns the denial of genocide and the glorification of war criminals, while calling on states to UN members to "preserve judicially established facts through educational systems, to prevent revisionism and the repetition of genocide".
German observers point out that the initiative for the Resolution is the result of long-term lobbying by associations in Srebrenica that preserve the memory of the victims of the genocide. This is an attempt to readmit it after it was blocked by Serbia's allies in the UN Security Council in 2015.
And yet a legitimate question arises: Why is the second attempt to adopt this document being made right now, after nine years? Of course, the answer is clear. It is about the West's response to the impostor.
Kosovo in the Council of Europe
The resolution on the Srebrenica genocide is not the only concern of the Serbian president. On April 16 this year, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe voted in favour of Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe and called on the Council of Ministers to adopt a formal decision. More than two-thirds of the representatives present voted for the acceptance of Kosovo, a severe defeat for the long-standing Serbian foreign policy, which has tried in every way to convince the countries of the world not to recognize or to refuse to recognize Kosovo.
The final decision on the question of Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe will be taken by the foreign ministers of the members. The discussion on this topic is expected to be on the agenda of the ministerial meeting, which is to be held in mid-May. The necessary number of votes for the adoption of Pristina is almost certain - and just after the voting of the Resolution on the genocide in Srebrenica at the UN General Assembly. Is all this just a coincidence or is the West acting on a pre-arranged script? Judge for yourself.
Performance in Peshter
German Foreign Minister Analen Berbock visited Podgorica and called on Montenegro to finish its "homework" on the European agenda by the summer, "because that would be a strong signal to those who want to block its path to the EU."
The State Department's special envoy Gabriel Escobar stressed that the US supports the acceleration of Montenegro's European path. It is more than obvious that the region is being decontaminated by Vučić's toxic political activities.
To try to salvage what he could and present himself to the West as an indispensable factor who still has the power to control stability in the region, the Serbian president staged a "military spectacle" on the Pešter Plateau (Peshter).
Major General Jozkan Ulutash, commander of KFOR (the NATO-led international peacekeeping force in Kosovo), also attended the Serbian army's joint tactical exercise called "Whirlwind 24". He was undoubtedly Vucic's most important guest. The only one worth the effort. All the others figured as symbols of the president's influence in the country and the neighbourhood. There was everything you usually find at fairs of this type: giraffes, sparrows, modernized eagles, super seagulls, and even suicide mosquitoes. All this is not enough for the West to refuse to reduce Vučić to what he is: a fraud, a dilettante and an autocrat. /BGNES
Boris Vukotic, analysis for the Croatian newspaper "Indeh".
Vukotic was born in Kotor, Montenegro. He graduated in international law and international relations at the Faculty of Law in Podgorica. He continued his education at Edwards Language School in London. He graduated from the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Podgorica and a master's degree in European studies at the Faculty of Political Sciences in Zagreb.
Former Consul of Montenegro in Croatia, in the period 2017-2021. The sphere of his interests is foreign policy and international relations and, above all, security issues related to the response to the attempt to change the global geopolitical architecture by the Russian Federation and China and the consequences of the mentioned policy on the Balkan region.
