The first round of the country's presidential election, which will see the incumbent President Klaus Iohannis replaced. The second round is scheduled for 8th of December. In between, on 1th of December, parliamentary elections will also be held.
Who is running for president and who could win?
Fourteen candidates are vying to succeed the centrist Iohannis, from the centre-left prime minister to the deputy secretary-general of Nato and a far-right former football hooligan whose party once said Holocaust education was a "minor issue" that should not be taught in school.
Last month, the court barred another far-right candidate, MEP Diana Shoshoaka, from the race on the grounds of "disregard for democratic values", arguing that her anti-Semitic and pro-Kremlin statements risked jeopardising Romania's EU and NATO membership.
The frontrunner with around 25%, despite many past crises related to corruption and the rule of law, is Marcel Ciolacu, prime minister and head of the Social Democratic Party (PSD), who will almost certainly run in the second round.
In second place, but with about 16%, is Giorgi Simion, an ardent leader of the populist, radical right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR), a former member of the Romanian ultras Honor et Patria, who wants "peace in Ukraine like Trump".
Close behind Simion with around 14% is Nicolae Ciuca of the centre-right National Liberal Party (NLP), a former military man, former defence minister and prime minister whose party is together with Ciolacu's PSD party in Romania's outgoing "grand coalition" government.
On a par with Ciuca is Elena Lasconi of the Union for the Salvation of Romania (USR), while Mircea Joana, a former USR leader and NATO deputy secretary-general who is running as an independent, trails by about 9%.
The polls in Romania are not very reliable, but most analysts predict a run-off between Ciolacu and Simion, from which the former is likely to emerge victorious, helped by the PSD's strong party organisation and the fact that he is facing a far-right candidate.
What is likely to happen in the parliamentary elections?
The Liberal NLP ended its partnership with the PSD in October after the Constitutional Court ruled on Shoshoaka. Chuka said the ruling "raises questions about the state of democracy in Romania."
The centre-right party argues that the court's decision was politically motivated: four of the five judges were appointed by the PSD, and since the far-right vote is no longer split, Simion has a significantly better chance of beating Chouka in the second round.
The PLP has promised not to enter into a new coalition with the Social Democrats, but many analysts think it could still come to that: the parties disagree on few issues except taxes, and Cholaku has ruled out any alliance with the far-right AUR.
The latest poll numbers suggest that the PSD is likely to win the parliamentary vote with around 30% of the vote, followed by the AUR with around 21%, the Liberal SRS, which has said it will not work with the PSD, with 17% and the NLP with around 14%.
Based on the projected results of the PSD and the NLP (provided they manage to bridge their differences), they will need the support of a smaller third party, possibly the UDMR, which represents the Hungarian minority in Romania, to secure a parliamentary majority.
The alternative - a PSD-AUR coalition - would mean a major turnaround for Romania, which is a staunch ally of the West. Simion is likely to demand an end to support for Ukraine and a more nationalist and Hungarian-inspired approach to the EU.
However, if the PSD keeps its promise not to allow AUR into government and the NLP keeps its promise not to go back into government with the PSD, there could be another snap general election.
What are the problems and how does the system work?
First and foremost among voters' concerns is the high cost of living, with inflation in Romania, at around 5%, the highest in the EU. The country's growing state deficit is also a hot topic, as is its crumbling infrastructure and dysfunctional healthcare system.
The war in Ukraine is also a major issue for far-right voters, who strongly object to Romania's continued, albeit downplayed, support for Kiev, increased spending on national defence and the increasingly prominent position of NATO's eastern flank.
The 330 members of parliament are elected by proportional representation in 43 constituencies, with some seats reserved for national minorities. Importantly, parties must pass the threshold of 5% of the total votes cast to gain representation.
In the previous elections in 2020, only five parties broke this barrier. If the same pattern is repeated, up to 15% or 20% of seats in parliament could be redistributed among parties that pass 5%, which could give the PSD and the NLP a majority.
In addition to choosing the prime minister, the president plays a largely symbolic role, although he represents the country on the international stage. | BGNES
